BJP's aggressive campaign in West Bengal will reduce scope to negotiate with regional parties to pass legislation

The second day of staggered polling for the West Bengal state elections was conducted today (11 April). This year's election is critical – not only for the incumbent All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), but also the opposition Communist Party of India – Marxist (CPI–M). The CPI–M governed West Bengal for 34 years in what was India's longest-serving state government, until the TMC managed to secure an overwhelming victory in the 2011 elections with the United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

Shifting political dynamics unlikely to affect TMC's popularity

The TMC currently holds an absolute majority in the state assembly, the 294-seat Vidhan Sabha. In a show of confidence, the state's ruling party chose to campaign without a political alliance, having severed its ties with the Indian National Congress (INC)-led UPA in 2012. On the other hand, the INC has been informally collaborating with the CPI-M-led Left Front for the 2016 election. Although there is no official seat-sharing agreement between the two traditional rivals, both the CPI-M and the INC are clearly seeking to isolate the TMC. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – which leads the central government – is also campaigning actively, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressing several rallies across the state. However, the party faces a significant challenge in expanding its influence in West Bengal. The BJP has historically struggled in the state, although the party made progress in the 2014 parliamentary election, in which it secured 17% of the overall vote – the highest it has ever recorded in West Bengal.

The shifting political dynamics appear to have had limited impact on the ruling party's electoral prospects. While opinion polls are notoriously unreliable in India, these concur with the Intelligence Bureau's report to the Union Home Ministry in predicting a decisive TMC victory. The TMC's chairperson and incumbent chief minister, Mamata Banerjee, remains a hugely popular figure. In terms of policy, the party is banking on the various social security and development projects introduced in the state in order to garner mass support during the elections. The opposition parties, including the BJP, have all aggressively targeted the incumbent government based on the Narada Scandal, the Saradha Financial Group Scam (a Ponzi scheme in 2013), and the 31 March flyover collapse in Kolkata. However, these scandals have had minimum impact on any TMC candidate. Ministers implicated in the controversies continue to remain in their positions, and to campaign for elections.

Outlook and implications

Another TMC-led government in West Bengal is likely to have mixed implications for the state's operating environment. Since 2011, the economy has performed significantly better under the TMC government than it did under the CPI–M, largely due to superior economic management. Tax collection has increased, while deficits have fallen. In particular, the TMC government and state finance minister Amit Mitra have sought to revive the state's industry, which had suffered under the CPI–M government. The TMC government is also actively pursuing further development of its agricultural and industrial sectors through additional subsidies for farmers and the development of new industrial zones, including Haldia Park and Harringate Industrial Park.

However, there remains a degree of unpredictability regarding policymaking in the state, particularly regarding the TMC's general attitude to foreign investment. The TMC and Banerjee were instrumental in organising the protests that led to the relocation of TATA's automotive factory from the state in 2008 over land-acquisition concerns. Moreover, the TMC government has done little to alleviate over-regulation in the state, although this is also driven by central-government rules. Finally, corruption remains a major obstacle, as well as the use of violence by gangs with deep political ties.

Another critical implication of the West Bengal election is for policymaking at the central-government level. Although the BJP holds a majority in the Lok Sabha (lower house) of the national parliament, the Rajya Sabha (upper house) is controlled by the opposition. As a result, the BJP's legislative agenda has already stalled, most notably over land-acquisition and tax reforms. This has forced the ruling party to focus on making gains in state elections, since state governments assign seats in the Rajya Sabha. To this end, the BJP has increasingly announced populist policies ahead of state elections – notably in Bihar in 2015 – with the aim that boosting the party's political capital at this stage will facilitate stalled reform plans in a potential second term; a lack of political gains in West Bengal will therefore hurt the BJP's long-term reform prospects. Moreover, the party's aggressive campaigning against the TMC will complicate efforts to negotiate additional short-term agreements with the regional party, which at present controls 12 seats in the Rajya Sabha.