Los Angeles Auto Show 2015: Vehicle introductions span segments

Global introductions at the Los Angeles Auto Show in the United States are expected from Buick, Mazda, Honda, Fiat, Scion, Jaguar, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Lincoln, Subaru, Volvo, and Honda. North American introductions are planned from Alfa Romeo, Cadillac, Jaguar, and BMW. Alternative powertrain vehicles will be introduced, but largely these will involve hybrid and electric vehicle (EV) powertrains, which have evolved into the landscape thoroughly enough that they do not dominate auto show introductions now.

Automakers are also looking to continue to satisfy the appetite of consumers for sport utility vehicles (SUVs). In Los Angeles this year, new SUVs will include global reveals for the Mazda CX-9, Mitsubishi Outlander Sport, and the Evoque convertible, as well as a B-segment SUV concept from Scion. An updated Ford Escape is expected for the 2017 model year, and may have a Los Angeles introduction. Cadillac introduced its XT5 at the Dubai motor show, but it will have a US introduction in Los Angeles. Jaguar's stand in Los Angeles will include the US introduction of the F-Pace SUV, first shown at the Frankfurt Motor Show in September. Infiniti will also have an SUV on display, as the QX30 receives a North American introduction. While there are new SUVs in a variety of segments, the luxury brands continue to introduce new SUVs at a faster pace than mainstream brands, as luxury brands are expanding their ranges, looking to increase volume through offering more nameplates.

Buick will reveal the next-generation LaCrosse sedan in Los Angeles, which will continue on an updated Epsilon platform, shared with the Chevrolet Malibu and Impala. In a teaser image prior to the show, Buick shared that the vehicle will adopt some exterior cues from the Avenir concept that was very well-received at the 2015 North American International Auto Show (NAIAS). IHS forecasts the updated car will have US sales of about 50,000 units in 2017. The LaCrosse is currently built at General Motors' (GM) plant in Fairfax, Kansas, US, but production of the new-generation model will shift to GM's Detroit-Hamtramck plant, along with the Chevrolet Impala. For Buick, the new car should ensure that its range-topping model is fully competitive in terms of offering much of the latest in GM's assisted driving and connectivity features. Buick is already among the GM brands offering 4G LTE internet connection and the IntelliLink system is a competitive infotainment package. However, we expect the new car will bring a few more features and generally improve execution of existing technology. The LaCrosse is also built and sold in China, with volumes in that country for this new generation forecasted to be around 80,000 units. Only the US and China have LaCrosse sales in any significant volume.

Volvo has indicated that it will show a concept in Los Angeles as well, which is expected to be a new car on the new scalable product architecture (SPA). This could evolve into a replacement for the S90, and Volvo has indicated that its concept car will focus on technology designed with the potential to save time for drivers. In Los Angeles, Jaguar is to introduce the XE sedan to the US market; the vehicle was introduced in Europe in 2014, and goes on sale in the US in spring 2016. Other luxury sedans due for a Los Angeles introduction are new Audi performance variants of the S8 and the RS 7 (see United States: 12 November 2015: Audi announces US pricing of Q7, S8 plus, and RS 7 performance models).

Mazda is showing the second-generation CX-9 in Los Angeles. This is a vehicle that Mazda has developed largely for the US and IHS forecasts that the US market will account for as much as 75% of the model's global sales volume. Mazda released a teaser image of the new SUV, which will leverage the company's SkyActiv technology and apply Kodo "soul of motion" design language and a turbocharged 4-cylinder engine. For Mazda, the updated SUV is expected to achieve sales of about 35,000 units in 2017, which will be about 75% of the company's global sales of the CX-9. The offering provides something for Mazda customers to move into once their family needs have grown beyond the CX-5. Mazda's recent model updates have been largely successful, offering a distinct blend of style, sporty nature, and reliability. Mazda does not lead in any particular technology area, but most of its products offer a more engaging experience than those of competitors. We will see if the CX-9 reaches the bar set by efforts with products from the Mazda6 to the CX-3 and the MX-5 Miata.

The Los Angeles show will also be significant for the Fiat and Alfa Romeo growth ambitions of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) CEO Sergio Marchionne. In Los Angeles, Fiat will reveal its modern 124 Spider and the Alfa Romeo Giulia is to receive its US introduction, having been shown first in June and then at the Frankfurt show in September. FCA is keeping the details of the 124 largely under wraps, but the Mazda Miata-based convertible is expected to use Fiat powertrains. While the 124 Spider may help elevate the brand image of Fiat in the US, where the brand has struggled to grow volume, the Spider is forecasted to add fewer than 6,000 units to Fiat's US sales per year. Globally, we forecast the convertible to contribute only about 12,000 units per annum in volume. The Alfa Romeo Giulia is designed to compete in the compact premium segment along with the BMW 3-Series. The platform of the Giulia is expected to eventually receive wider use among the FCA brands, increasing its importance to the company's overall strategy. IHS forecasts sales of the Giulia to be around 15,000 units in 2017, and for it to be the highest-volume Alfa entry in the US throughout the decade. IHS forecasts, however, that Italy will remain Alfa's largest single market, with sales of nearly 63,000 units in 2017.

The compact-car class is seeing increased activity in late 2015 and in 2016, which is reflected in the Los Angeles Auto Show line-up. As Honda's Civic sedan is arriving at dealerships, and the company will reveal the production coupé at the Los Angeles show. The Honda show stand will also feature the Clarity fuel-cell vehicle, which had a global introduction at the Tokyo Motor Show in late October. In addition to the Civic, Hyundai's Elantra receives a US reveal - the Avante version was introduced recently in South Korea - Nissan will reveal an updated Sentra, and Subaru is planning to show a concept version of its next-generation Impreza sedan, after a concept of the hatchback was shown at the Tokyo Motor Show. Subaru has been achieving tremendous growth in the US, which has become the largest single market for the Impreza. Within the segment, we expect to see continued increases in technology availability, with longer lists of driver assist features.

Along with the Fiat 124 Spider and Land Rover Evoque convertible (see United States: 9 November 2015: Los Angeles Auto Show 2015: JLR reveals details of Range Rover Evoque convertible), an update of the Mercedes-Benz SL convertible is to be shown in Los Angeles. According to IHS's information, there will be 14 new convertibles going on sale in the US in 2016, compared with only 5 in 2015. With a buoyant auto market and high consumer confidence, US consumers may be ready to explore more optimistic and less practical purchases.

Outlook and implications

The 2015 Los Angeles Auto Show will see a variety of global and North American introductions, with a less clear theme than some shows have claimed. There will be a number of SUV introductions, largely in the luxury space. With several compact-car entries being updated for the 2016 model year, the Los Angeles show will see new models from several automakers in that segment. Los Angeles is often considered one of the trend-setting cities of the world, tied to a modern luxury image, leading to a strong showing from the luxury sector. The show continues to be paired with the Connected Car Expo, which is expected to also provide a backdrop for automotive news related to connectivity and infotainment.

IHS Automotive forecasts some growth in the US standard compact-car segment, with sales increasing from 2.29 million units in 2015 to 2.45 million units in 2017, but growth for this mature segment is expected to lag the market. In 2017, we forecast the Toyota Corolla will maintain its segment leadership, followed by the Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cruze, and Hyundai Elantra. The model line forecasted to see the most pressure is the Ford Focus, with the volumes forecasted to continue to drop in the face of competition. Although the segment is under pressure, it still is forecasted to account for 2.45 million units in the US in 2017, compared with 2.29 million units in 2015, staying slightly ahead of the compact SUV segment, which is forecasted to see sales of 2.38 million units in 2017, compared with 2.32 million units in 2015.