US April light-vehicle sales jump 4.6%, trucks and utilities continue to climb

Detroit automakers

General Motors' April demand increased 5.9% year on year (y/y) and is up 5.5% year to date (ytd). April sales of 269,056 brought the first four months' results to 953,095 units. After flat results in March, Buick declined 5.2% y/y in April and is down 4.7% for the year. Encore picked up 29.4% and outsold the larger Enclave for the first time. LaCrosse, Regal, and Verano all saw declines as well. At Cadillac, sales picked up 13.7% in April and are now only down 1.0% ytd. Escalade sales remain strong, while ATS and CTS are still falling. SRX, far and away Cadillac's best seller, saw sales gains along with XTS. CTS and ATS continue to struggle. Chevrolet demand gained 3.4%, helped by the new Colorado and Trax. Equinox was Chevy's second-best seller, after the Silverado, with a y/y gain of 42%.

Ford Motor Company saw a good month in April, with demand up 5.4% y/y after two consecutive months of decline. Ytd, sales are up only 2.9%. Overall, the company's car sales are flat, utilities up 14.5%, and trucks up 2.8%. The Ford brand gained 4.9% on stronger utilities sales, which grew 12.3% y/y, compared with a 1.3% gain in car sales and 2.8% in trucks. The F-Series dropped 0.9%, but the Transit saw a 10,913-unit month. Lincoln picked up 19.6% y/y in April and is up 4.2% for the year. The MKC continues to sell well, although the MKZ is the highest volume Lincoln and that declined 4.6%. The MKZ, MKX, and MKT all saw declines, although MKX is due for replacement this year and the replacement for the MKS was teased by the Lincoln Continental on 1 April.

FCA US reported its 61st consecutive month of y/y sales gains, up 6.0% to 189,027 units. Car sales were up 28.7%, with trucks and utilities essentially flat, with a 0.5% decline. FCA's sales are dominated by truck and utility sales, with 139,239 of those sold compared with 49,788 cars sold in April. Ram pickup demand gained 3.4% y/y to 37,921 units. April Fiat sales fell 12.6%,- with the 500X sport utility vehicle (SUV) arriving later this year, Fiat should see improvement in the second half of the year. Chrysler brand sales gained 26.1% for the month to 27,704 units; the 200 was responsible for the gain as that model increased 348%. Jeep accounted for 37.9% of FCA's US April sales, with a 20.1% increase. Dodge brand sales fell 16% -- later in 2015 the brand's y/y comparisons are expected to be less difficult as the loss of the Avenger is adjusted. The brand did see a 42.3% gain in Dart sales, as well as the Challenger and Charger.

Japanese automakers

Toyota's April sales gain proved out at 1.8% y/y. Ytd, the company's sales are up 8.5%. Toyota Division sales were flat, up only 0.5%, with 177,453 vehicles sold. Lexus gained 11.7% in April and sold 25,876 units: the all-new NX brought in 3,421 units of those sales. Toyota Motor Sales' truck and SUV products were up 9.8% y/y, against a decline of 4.6% in cars. The gap between car and truck sales grew to 20,658 units, in favour of car sales, in April. Scion continues to see erosion, although the latter half of the year should look better when the all-new iA and iM arrive.

American Honda saw a less steep decline in April of 1.8% than in March, when the company experienced a 5.3% decline. Ytd, the company is up only 1.4%. The Honda division's April sales declined by 2.7%, although Acura demand grew by 5.3% y/y. Honda's CR-V was the best seller at 29,452 units, with Civic behind at 28,380 units. Accord saw sales off 20.1%, to 27,251 units. In a strong SUV market Acura's MDX and RDX saw a sales decline. The TLX was well ahead of the TL and TSX results of March 2014, as the brand planned. Although the SUVs declined, they continued to account for 60% of the brand's sales.

Demand for Nissan and Infiniti increased by 4.0% y/y in April and is up 4.0% for the year. The Nissan brand gained 5.4% in demand after a decline in March. Although Nissan car sales fell 5.7%, Altima remains the best-selling Nissan, with 22,108 units sold. Altima sales reflected an 11.5% decline, while Rogue's 44% increase led to sales of 21,767 units in April. Infiniti demand grew 8.8% y/y in April, with the Q50's 2,991 units barely ahead of the QX50's 2,829 units sold. While Nissan fell behind Honda in April sales, it remains ahead of Honda for the year.

Subaru claimed another record sales month, with 17.9% demand increase and 49.111 units sold in April, and the 41st consecutive month of y/y growth. Forester and Outback delivered 56% of the month's sales. Mazda's April sales grew by 7.5% to 24,123 units. The brand's SUV sales grew 26.1%, while car sales were down 3.1%.

Other automakers

Volkswagen (VW) Group saw sales pick up by 3.0% in April, pulling the ytd result to nearly flat (down 0.3%), although its gains continue to lag behind the market. The VW brand saw sales decline 3.7%, selling 30,009 units in April compared with 30,831 a year earlier. The VW brand is being hurt by a lack of fresh product, particularly in the SUV category, although the new and well-praised Golf did see sales jump 206%. Audi reported its 52nd straight month of sales for the brand, to 16,827 units, a gain of 7.5%. Porsche picked up 28.1% y/y in April on incremental Macan sales as the other model lines experienced declines compared with April 2014. Combined April sales for Hyundai (68,009 units) and affiliate Kia (53,282 units), which operate separately, reflected a 1.3% y/y gain to 121,291 units. Hyundai picked up 2.9% while Kia gained 1.3%.

Outlook and implications

Although a dip from the strong March results was expected, and y/y volume grew for the 14th consecutive month, the April seasonally adjusted sales rate of 16.5 million units was slightly disappointing. Even though the SAAR was below par, it was still the highest April sales pace since 2006 and up from the 16.0-million-unit pace realised in April 2014. Incentives and fleet sales remain fairly stable; however, it appears that monthly sales results may reflect some of the same volatility realised through much of 2014. Light-truck sales continue to motivate the market and a strong bounce back in May will maintain our light-vehicle sales projection of 16.9 million units for the year.

There were 26 selling days this April, the same as in April 2014. On a unit volume level, 1.45 million light vehicles sold, a gain of 4.6% compared with a year ago. This results in a first-quarter sales volume of 5.4 million units, up over 275,000 units from the first four months of 2014.

Most automakers saw y/y gains in April, excepting Honda's 1.8% sales decline. Volume growth was led by Subaru, up 17.9% in April, followed by a 5.9% y/y improvement for GM. FCA rode strong sales of the Jeep brand to growth of 5.8% for the month. Nissan gained 5.7% and Ford 5.4%, although Toyota picked up only 1.8% in April sales.

Light-truck sales continue to dominate the landscape, keeping up after weather-induced preference for all-wheel and four-wheel drive utility vehicles pushed sales throughout the first quarter. Through the first four months of 2015 light-truck sales are up over 288,000 units compared with last year, while passenger car sales declined by 13,000 units. In April total passenger car sales were down 1.5% y/y while light-truck sales were up 10.5% and accounted for 55% of light-vehicle demand, compared with a 51.4% share in April 2014.

Month-end vehicle stocks for the industry decreased by only a slim margin compared with the month-ago level as vehicle production output remains strong. The Detroit manufacturer inventory was mixed, with Ford seeing a small increase in inventory (up 3,469 units, to 610,343) compared with March 2015. GM's inventory declined by nearly 24,000 units and FCA's inventory dropped by nearly 11,000 units.