PM of South Korea Resigns, Fuelling Speculation She May Launch Presidential Bid

An Expected Resignation

South Korea's first female prime minister Han Myung-Sook’s move to announce her formal resignation as the extraordinary session of the National Assembly drew to a close came as no surprise. Han already offered her resignation when President Roh Moo-hyun declared that he would quit his embattled Uri Party, despite retaining the presidency until the end of his term in February 2008 (see South Korea: 23 February 2007: Unpopular South Korean President Resigns from Ruling Party). Wrapping up her 10 months in office, Han stated that she would now return to her former position of being a Uri lawmaker, with observers speculating that she may launch a bid for the presidency in the upcoming elections. Roh is now expected to put forward his nomination of a new prime minister on Friday (9 March), with Han Duck-Soo having been named as the most likely candidate to succeed Han. The former deputy prime minister and minister of finance and economy currently serves as Roh’s adviser in the ongoing free trade talks with the United States, and is held to be fully capable of “overseeing overall state affairs, including free trade talks with the United States, and other pending economic issues," according to government sources cited by Yonhap News.

Efforts to Shore Up a Fragmenting Party

Han’s resignation coincides with several key measures that have been taken to shore up the Uri Party ahead of the December presidential elections, culminating with President Roh Moo-Hyun’s announcement last month that he would resign from his ruling Uri Party in a bid to boost its weak position vis-à-vis the opposition Grand National Party (GNP; see South Korea: 19 January 2007: Ruling Uri Party Disbands Ahead of South Korea’s Presidential Election). Roh’s resignation followed the disbandment of his Uri Party in January in favour of creating a new party. The decision to establish a new party by pro-reform forces within the party was based on an internal consensus that Uri had no chance of winning the upcoming elections under the current political circumstances. Moreover, Roh’s popularity has continued to plummet over the implication of his top officials in various scandals, his failure to address housing issues, and economic reform. Meanwhile, his support for a free-trade agreement (FTA) with the United States has alienated left-leaning supporters, while his engagement policies vis-à-vis North Korea and undermining of the country’s security alliance with the United States has angered conservatives, leaving him with single-digit support ratings in the polls. The Uri Party has meanwhile been bogged down in infighting in the aftermath of the announcement of its disbandment. A total of 31 lawmakers have defected since then, reducing it to the second-largest party in the National Assembly. This has left the popular GNP as the largest political bloc in the National Assembly and Uri in search for a new election strategy, including a convincing bidder for the presidency.

A New Presidential Candidate for Uri?

While Roh’s resignation has served to compound his position as a lame-duck president for the remainder of his time in office, it is expected to enable Uri to dissociate itself from the unpopular president and his policies, thereby boosting not only its position in the run-up to the elections, but also its chances to join forces with other parties—notably the Democratic Party—to challenge the GNP. This includes deflecting criticism over the policy failures of the ruling party on to the GNP, as it has now become the largest party in the National Assembly. However, with Uri’s current presidential candidates having scored low approval ratings of merely 1-5% in the polls, the party is in dire need of a presidential candidate that can unify what remains of the Uri Party and convincingly represent it in the elections, with Han being the embattled party’s best bet. Pyongyang-born Han is a two-term lawmaker, who has previously served as South Korea's first minister of gender equality in 2001 and environment minister in 2003. Han is known as the leader of Korea's women's movement, and before entering politics she was a renowned feminist activist and a pro-democracy fighter, leading to her two-year imprisonment for her fight against the military dictatorship of Park Chung-hee in the 1970s. Her appointment last year was widely hailed by politicians and women's groups as a major step forwards for women in the male-dominated society and a remarkable achievement of Korean politics. Han is known for her firm leadership style despite her low-profile in government, and she has therefore been tipped by many to be an appropriate presidential candidate to shore up support for the fractured Uri Party ahead of the presidential elections.

Outlook and Implications

The prime minister’s resignation is not believed to have significant implications on the functioning of government with the position being generally ceremonial in the South Korean political system as real power lies with the president. Lame duck president Roh is now expected to bring politically neutral figures into a new Cabinet to push through his controversial constitutional reform allowing future presidents to serve two consecutive terms. Any new Cabinet would also be expected to deal with various outstanding bills in the areas of real estate, judicial reform and pensions.

Meanwhile, Han’s resignation could have a considerable impact on how the Uri Party will fare in the presidential elections. If Uri should succeed in fielding the popular Han as a contestant for the presidency, this may go some way towards shoring up a higher degree of support for party. Such an endeavour will to a large degree depend on the capacity of Uri to dissociate itself from the policies of Roh. However, Han’s resignation may, along with that of Roh quitting Uri, play into the reconfiguration of the party ahead of the elections. The disbandment of Uri has seen the emergence of two factions from within the party, one comprised of reformers and another of Roh loyalists. The former has pushed for the establishment of a new party, while the latter has sought to keep what remains of the party unified. Roh’s resignation has heightened concerns within the breakaway group that Uri may in fact gain the upper hand in its efforts to form a new party, a trend that may be compounded by Uri fielding a strong presidential candidate. However, the GNP remains way ahead, with its top presidential candidates, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geung-hye, generally scoring ratings of 40% and 20%, respectively, in the polls.

There are further signs that Han’s resignation may coincide with the pursuit of a new political and electoral strategy on the part of Uri. Former prime minister and close adviser to President Roh, Lee Hae-chan is to undertake a visit to North Korea, and there is speculation that a new inter-Korean summit may be in the offing after the Stalinist country agreed to take steps towards denuclearisation last month. Lee, who also has close relations to former president Kim Dae-Jung, who presided over the 2000 landmark summit between the two countries that swept in policies of engagement and reconciliation, has refuted this, but the opposition fears that this is a political strategy to win over parts of the electorate, as relations between North Korea and the international community are improving.