Opposition calls for president's resignation indicate growing political instability in Haiti

A coalition of eleven opposition parties called for the impeachment of President Michel Martelly on 24 July for "systemic violations of the constitution". The group, which has named itself the Patriotic Movement of the Democratic Opposition (Mouvement patriotique de l'opposition démocratique: MOPOD) also called on Martelly to resign if he did not hold partial senatorial, municipal, and local elections, which have been delayed since May 2012. The impeachment call follows a number of recent incidents which have exacerbated already high levels of political instability in the country.

On 17 July, hundreds of Haitians protested in the town of L'Estére following the death of Judge Jean Serge Joseph, who was investigating corruption allegations linked to Martelly's family. According to uncorroborated local media reports, during the protest at least six people were shot and injured by state security forces and UN peacekeepers. The protesters, and opposition senator Jean-Charles Moise, alleged that the death of the judge by poisoning was linked to his investigations into the Martelly family. The Supreme Council of the Judiciary and the Senate are investigating the case. The judge's body has been sent to Toronto, Canada, for examination.

These events have intensified Martelly has been weakened by repeated enforced changes to his cabinet, typically resignations sparked by internal cabinet disputes. Most recently, in April, the minister of economics and finance and minister of communications resigned. Relations between the government and the opposition – which controls the Senate – have deteriorated throughout 2012 and 2013, frustrating the passage of legislation and delaying the holding of local elections.

The opposition is unlikely to secure the impeachment of Martelly. The ruling Parliamentarians for Progress coalition continues to hold a small majority of seats in the lower house of parliament, making a vote for impeachment unlikely. Calls for the president to resign if elections aren't held before 2014, which is looking increasingly probable, are likely to be ignored. Nevertheless, both demands are symbolically powerful and are likely to raise both donor and investor concern.

Deepening political polarisation in Haiti is having a detrimental impact on the country's business environment, despite government efforts to attract foreign direct investment into the country. In February, the opposition-dominated Senate voted to suspend two mining permits awarded to SOMINE SA, a joint venture of Canada's Majescor Resources and Haitian investors, and to US operator VCS Mining LLC. The country's USD300 million flagship Caracol Industrial Park has failed to attract significant investor interest since opening in October 2012, despite strong lobbying from the United Nations special envoy to Haiti, Bill Clinton, and the International Development Bank (IDB).

Outlook and implications

Despite government and donor attempts to tackle Haiti's obvious operational risks, including poor government and physical infrastructure, sharpening political instability is likely to undermine these efforts. The potential for social unrest linked to the investigation into Judge Joseph's death is likely to be used by the opposition to further pressure Martelly's government until elections are held. Street protests on a range of issues have challenged the government throughout 2012 and 2013. However, the US – Haiti's most important donor and partner – continues to maintain support for Martelly, which is key to him maintaining his office. If levels of state violence in response to protests were to significantly increase, the US would likely reevaluate its support. Likewise, if the investigation into Judge Joseph's death reveals evidence of foul play, the US would likely withdraw its support of the Martelly administration, thereby significantly increasing the likelihood of regime change.