Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | A bombing last December in Madrid that killed two people and was claimed by ETA effectively ended the prospect of negotiations between the terrorist group and the Spanish government. |
Implications | The explicit announcement ending the ceasefire has revived fears of a resumption of ETA violence across Spain, with intelligence services warning of an “imminent” attack. |
Outlook | Negotiations over a peace settlement have been abandoned, and ETA activities, such as extortion demands, continue. With the popular tourist season approaching in Spain, the government will be preparing for the increased threat after this latest ETA declaration. Further raids and crackdowns on ETA members can therefore be expected. |
Risk Ratings | The threat of an ETA attack remains high in Spain, and small explosions or minor urban violence are already common in the northern regions. Although the possibility of a more serious attack is now heightened, Global Insight has factored such a scenario into its Security Risk Rating, which currently stands at 2.25, but we will continue to monitor developments to ascertain whether the rating should be downgraded in the near term. |
A Well-Timed Announcement
Basque separatist terror group ETA, perpetrators of hundreds of attacks in Spain during four decades of violence, yesterday announced a resumption in its activities, declaring an end to the “permanent ceasefire” it had called in March 2006.
In a statement published in the Basque newspaper Berria, the group declared that from midnight tonight, ETA "will defend Euskal Herria [the land of Basque speakers] with arms on all fronts", as cited in news reports. The ending of the ceasefire, ETA’s third, was predictably blamed on the socialist government’s activities against the group. In its statement, ETA claimed that the government had "responded to the ceasefire by pursuing detentions, torture and persecution".
In fact, the current government, led by Prime Minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, has been instrumental in pushing for negotiations with ETA over a peace settlement for the Basque country, one of Spain’s wealthiest regions. The move towards negotiations had been heavily criticised by the opposition Popular Party (PP) and by powerful victim support groups, which led demonstrations across the country. However, despite these protestations, Zapatero appeared determined to continue negotiations towards an eventual agreement. His position was considerably compromised after a fatal bomb explosion in a car park at Madrid airport in December 2006, killing two men and eliciting national outrage (see Spain: 2 January 2007: Airport Blast in Spanish Capital Signals End for ETA Ceasefire). Curiously, ETA maintained that the ceasefire held despite this little “blip”, but the government was forced to suspend all talks as a result.
ETA’s decision to wait until now to formally announce the termination of the ceasefire is likely to have been motivated by the local elections held last month in the Basque country, which were a key test for nationalist forces operating in the region. In the end, Spanish courts banned hundreds of nationalist candidates from standing, and refused to lift the official ban on ETA’s political wing, Batasuna, from contesting the elections, sparking a series of minor violent incidents in northern Spain (see Spain: 8 May 2007: Hundreds of Nationalists Banned from Contesting Spanish Local Elections, Sparking Fears of ETA Attack and Spain: 23 May 3007: Incidents of Violence Occur in Northern Spain Ahead of Local Elections). Indeed, announcing its decision to resume violent means to achieve its ends, ETA yesterday declared that the “minimum conditions have not been met to continue the process of negotiations”.
Outlook and Implications
Following the publication of the ETA statement, a flurry of reports in the Spanish media this morning have alluded to the possibility of an “imminent” attack, with the daily El País stating that “the police, the civil guard and the CNI [intelligence service] agree on the fact that ETA is preparing a terrorist action in the short term”. Some reports predict that some sort of “comeback” attack is probable, but is likely to be “victimless”. Nonetheless, with the tourist season approaching in Spain, security forces will be on full alert for any suspicious activity. In recent weeks, authorities have led several raids, resulting in key arrests of ETA members, as well as the dismantling of the group’s logistical and operational capabilities, but they are aware that much remains to be done. Neighbouring France has also led raids on ETA strongholds, leading to several arrests.
Despite the ceasefire, ETA had continued its other, non-violent activities to fund its objectives. In the past few days, reports have emerged of extortion letters sent to Basque and Navarra business executives in recent weeks, for the payment of a 'revolutionary tax”. Such incidents are likely to increase now that the ceasefire has ended and the group’s logistical capacity has been somewhat reduced. Financing the separatist fight in preparation for another period of violence will once again take on increased significance.
The announcement by ETA comes at a key moment for the government and for Zapatero. Having claimed joint victory in the local elections with the opposition PP, the political focus now will be on general elections scheduled for 2008, in which the centre-right could edge to victory depending on how the administration now handles the increased threat from ETA. Zapatero immediately condemned the ETA decision yesterday, and is expected to make an official address this evening. However, his personal and his government’s credibility rests on resolution of the decades-long separatist conflict, and Zapatero now finds himself in one of his most vulnerable positions since taking office in the wake of one of Spain’s deadliest terrorist attacks, the Islamist-perpetrated bombing of the Madrid transport system in March 2004. Global Insight will continue to monitor Spain’s Security Risk Rating, and we will review it in our Quarterly Risk Review to assess its relevance in light of these latest developments.