ICRC Declares Existence of Internal Armed Conflict in Syria

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) officially designated the Syrian conflict a non-international armed conflict (civil war) yesterday, meaning that combatants are now subject to the terms of the Geneva Conventions and may therefore be prosecuted for war crimes. The announcement came less than a month after the head of the UN's peacekeeping operations, Herve Ladsous, announced on 12 June that the country had effectively entered a civil war (see Syria: 13 June 2012: Syria in "Civil War" As Russia Accused of Supplying Attack Helicopters).

The ICRC's announcement was prompted by a second visit on 15 July of United Nations observers to the village of Tremseh, the site of a 12 July massacre in which 200 civilians are reported to have been killed following shelling and shooting. The UN team reported that Syrian troops were responsible for killing a number of civilians and had deliberately targeted regime defectors and activists, with a spokesman saying that "a wide range of weapons were used, including artillery, mortars and small arms".

Although the targeting of opponents to the regime supported the government's narrative that it was a legitimate military operation, the brutality of the operation and the use of heavy artillery constitute a breach of President Bashir al-Assad's pledge not to use such weaponry. Since anti-government protests began in March 2011, more than 17,000 people have died in the country according to a 10 July report from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

"Fiercest Fighting"

Shortly after the ICRC announcement, residents in the Syrian capital Damascus told international media outlets on 15 July that the city was experiencing the fiercest fighting since the conflict began in 2011. Damascus residents told Reuters that the capital was rocked by loud explosions and persistent gunfire throughout the night as opposition forces battled with government troops.

The BBC reported today (16 July) that fighting between forces belonging to the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA) and government troops was becoming increasingly widespread in the Syrian capital, which has so far escaped the worst of the Syrian conflict. Although the city was hit by two explosions on 10 May, the attacks bore the hallmarks of Jabhat al-Nusra, a militant jihadist group that has taken advantage of the fighting to become increasingly active in Syria in 2012, rather than the FSA (see Syria: 10 May 2012: Syrian Capital Rocked by Two Explosions).

The escalation of fighting in Damascus will be a significant concern for President Assad, given that until recently there was little evidence of the regime losing sufficient support in the capital to pose significant problems. Now, it appears that an escalation of fighting across the country is being accompanied by a deterioration in Damascus' security situation. Certainly, residents of Damascus have reacted strongly to the developments, with international media outlets reporting that residents were fleeing a number of areas of the city as fighting continues today (16 July). Furthermore activists have been reporting that columns of armoured vehicles were entering the Tadamon district of Damascus, as the government seeks to defeat the rebel forces with a demonstration of its power.

International Intervention?

Despite the ICRC's ruling on the status of the conflict, the UN Security Council remains deadlocked over Syria, with Russia and China remaining opposed to imposing sanctions on the Assad regime. The Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, told a press conference in Moscow today that despite intensifying diplomatic activity, Russia has not changed its fundamental position regarding Syria. His statement will overshadow a meeting that the UN envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan, is scheduled to have with Russian President Vladimir Putin tomorrow.

Lavrov met with the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) on 11 July, however, the meeting merely underscored the gulf in stance between opposition groups and Russia, with SNC spokesman Abdel Basset Sayda telling reporters that "there cannot be talk of a solution until Assad quits power. Russia has a different position on the issue".

During his speech, Lavrov accused the west of attempting to blackmail Russia over Syria, regarding threats that the UN observer mission in Syria would not be extended if Russia does not agree to UN sanctions against the regime. A vote on renewing the 300-strong observer mission is scheduled to be held on Friday (20 July). The mission faced difficulties from the outset in April and on 16 June the UN suspended its activities due to escalating violence in the country (see Syria: 18 June 2012: UN Suspends Observer Mission in Syria).

Outlook and Implications

The ICRC's designation of the conflict as a civil war will increase pressure on the international community to intervene, however, it is unlikely to prove sufficient to break the impasse in the UN Security Council and as such an agreement over an enforcement mechanism is likely to continue to prove elusive. Sergei Lavrov has already confirmed Russia's continued tacit support for the Assad regime despite the ICRC announcement and as such prospects for a managed resolution to the conflict remain slim. Moreover, Assad is unlikely to be deterred by the prospect of being charged with war crimes, given the inherent difficulties in enforcing such charges; for example, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in 2008. Although Assad will be concerned by the extent of the ongoing fighting in Damascus, it is unlikely that the opposition can currently rely on enough support in the city to offer a serious threat to the regime. Moreover, government forces will seek to crush any unrest as swiftly and firmly as possible so as to deter others in the city from taking up arms.