IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The authorities have said that they want to eradicate the militant presence from Buner, which borders the troubled district of Swat. The government has said that members of the Pakistani Taliban had moved into Buner and were attempting to recruit boys and young men into their ranks. |
Implications | This is the latest military operation in the region, and one that follows increasing concern and pressure from the international community for action against the spreading militant presence. Notably, with Swat now largely under the control of the Pakistani Taliban, the militant presence has begun creeping further southwards towards the capital, Islamabad. |
Outlook | The outlook remains poor. Even if the militant presence is tackled in Buner, the Pakistani Taliban has a new operational base in Swat. Here the government has sought peace through negotiation in the face of failed military operations, but increasingly it has become clear that this tactic has simply emboldened the militants, making them ever more keen to extend their reach. |
Fresh Pressure, Fresh Operations
Military operations began yesterday afternoon in Buner (approximately 100km north of Islamabad). These have seen the military employ both land and air forces against the militants, with military spokesman, Athar Abbas, announcing that the mission's aim was to "eliminate and expel" 400-500 members of the Pakistani Taliban from the district. The move came after the militants failed to heed a number of warnings sounded over the weekend, pressing them to leave the area. The weekend also saw clashes in Dir, which also borders Swat, although the government has been less clear on whether military operations are under way in this district or if the fighting was localised. The use of the air force is interesting, and marks a widening of tactics against the militants. This has prompted speculation as to whether military operations are broadening, signalling a new phase in the fight against the militant presence. Certainly the government is under increased pressure to act, particularly though not exclusively, from the United States. The United States and a number of other key players, remain irritated by the peace deal that the authorities made with one element of the Pakistani Taliban, the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM), in February. This has seen President Asif Ali Zardari allow the imposition of Sharia (Islamic law) in Swat, in return for the disarmament of the militants. As recent events in Buner and Dir appear to have shown, the militants have not disarmed and are instead now trying to extend their influence.
Swat: The New Operational Base
In this respect, Swat has become a new operational base and safe haven for the Pakistani Taliban. The introduction of Sharia is a key demand and the group has been buoyed by the government's acceptance of this. The Taliban has been working hard to consolidate its power and the fruits of its labour are beginning to reap dividends. Although military operations have been under way in parts of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and latterly NWFP for a number of years now, the militant problem has been far from curtailed and is now spreading faster than the authorities could previously have imagined. Pakistan has become a safe haven not only for local Taliban, but also the Afghan Taliban, many of whom operate out of Baluchistan, and also al-Qaida. The fact that Pakistan has been an active member in trying to counter extremism and terrorism since the United States began its war on terror in the region, but now finds itself in the precarious position that it does, has left many people wondering what has fundamentally gone wrong. In this respect, many of the arguments are well-worn and tend to focus on two issues: just how serious is Pakistan about addressing the extremist problem, and does it in fact have the capacity to do so? On both counts it has found to be failing.
Fixing Pakistan
This has become an ever-increasing problem, not only for Pakistan, which has suffered greatly as a result of militant activity in recent years, but for many other nations, regionally and internationally. As the Taliban has consolidated its power in Pakistan's border areas—as well as increasingly into its settled areas—this problem has grown and is threatening wider policy interests. For the United States and its allies, the security threat posed by these elements is seriously undermining a policy that is attempting to stabilise Afghanistan. More broadly, the success and operations of militants in the region is having a far wider radicalising effect, which in turn is creating and will create further terrorist activity across the globe. In addition, whilst key players like the United States and United Kingdom search for means by which to address this problem, the problem itself is getting larger. This makes it essential for Pakistan to seriously decide on a policy that doesn't just try to contain the problem, but fundamentally addresses it. In this it requires massive support on a number of fronts, and a well thought-out, unified strategy to address a number of key problems.
Outlook and Implications
The outlook is poor because whatever option Pakistan settles on will create further problems. In the immediate term, operations in Buner may well lead to retaliatory action elsewhere. Beyond this, even if the military can claim success in "eradicating" the militant presence in Buner and Dir, the fact remains that Swat has fallen under militant control. If Pakistan settled on the option of trying to take on the militants wholesale, this would threaten to destabilise the country, with the situation expected to deteriorate significantly before it began to show signs of improvement. Increasingly however, as the threat has grown so the need for a more drastic rather than piecemeal approach has increased. Whether new military operations in Buner reflect this is debatable though unlikely. Instead Pakistan and its partners have much work ahead, and no obvious solutions, in their bid to tackle the growing security problem.