Low-sophistication Islamist attack on churches and hospitality venues likely in Ghana amid growing militant network penetration

One of the major churches in the Ghanaian capital of Accra, Christ the King Catholic Church, located next to the Office of the President on Liberation Road, yesterday (19 May) announced that it has banned backpacks as part of new directives to increase security. The announcement follows warnings by Think Tank Africa Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies (ACSIS) that Burkinabé-based Salafist jihadist groups are looking to expand their operational scope by launching attacks on churches and hospitality venues in nearby countries, including Ghana, Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, and Togo. There were three separate Islamist attacks on churches in Burkina Faso in April, in which 16 people were killed. On 15 February, militants were reported to have killed four Burkinabé customs officers and a Spanish priest at the Nohao border post near the Ghanaian border.

Significance: IHS Markit sources in Ghana's security establishment indicate that, since early 2018, various individuals with connections to militant groups have been moving in and out of Ghana across the Burkinabé border. These have used familial connections and routes in illegal mining ('galamsey') and forestry zones in the predominantly Muslim northern Ghana. Approximately 20% of Ghana’s population is Muslim and 70% Christian. Although there has not been a successful attack since Ghana's National Security Council issued warnings in August 2016, in January 2018, three Ghanaian returnees from Libya were arrested in possession of hand grenades and other explosives intending to carry out a terrorist-related attack. The latest news of the movement of militants across the border indicates the existence of at least a support network in the country (see Ghana: 19 January 2018: Foiled attack by Ghanaian returnees from Libya indicative of growing militant network presence, low-sophistication attack likely). Any attack in the next six months is likely to be on churches and hospitality venues frequented by expatriates in northern Ghana, particularly Bolgatanga, Wa, and Tamale. Youth located in Muslim settler communities such as Maamobi, Sukura, and Nima in Accra are also likely to be recruited to carry out low-sophistication armed attacks on churches, hotels, malls, or entertainment venues frequented by foreigners in Accra. Indicators pointing to an improving security environment would be terrorist-related arrests and launch of new joint police-military patrols, including successful deployment of troops across mining zones.