Cameroonian government's negotiation preconditions mean reduction in secessionist armed attacks, kidnapping, and general strikes unlikely

Cameroonian Prime Minister Joseph Dion Ngute arrived in Bamenda, Northwest region, on 9 May to announce that the government was seeking to engage in dialogue with secessionist insurgents that operate in Cameroon's English-speaking Northwest and Southwest regions. The United Nations Security Council called a meeting for 13 May to discuss the insurgency, which has likely caused President Paul Biya to agree to arrange such talks to placate his international allies. On 10 May, the opposition Social Democratic Front (SDF), which boasts widespread support in the English-speaking regions, called for an immediate ceasefire, insisting that its chairman, John Fru Ndi, mediate the talks and, like the government, that secessionism must be categorically ruled out from negotiations.

Significance: While the government's announcement and the SDF's willingness to join talks are likely to increase public support for an end to the conflict, Ngute's announcement is unlikely to reduce secessionist insurgency in Cameroon's Southwest and Northwest regions. This is because President Biya has set the precondition that, during such talks, he would not discuss the prospect of secession, the primary aim of the insurgent groups. As a result, leaders of insurgent groups are unlikely to engage in dialogue with the government and they will likely continue to mount armed attacks, mostly against government security forces and public officials, stage kidnappings of school and university students and public officials, and enforce occasional general strikes (colloquially named "ghost towns") across the Northwest and Southwest regions. The establishment of a UN peacekeeping operation to monitor conflict in the Southwest and Northwest regions would indicate a likely decrease in violence, as government forces would be better held to account for their reportedly widespread abuse of civilians' human rights in the regions. The unlikely imposition of Security Council sanctions against high-ranking members of the Cameroonian government or military would increase the currently low likelihood of the administration removing its preconditions for dialogue, which would greatly increase the likelihood of negotiations between insurgents and the government.