Tourists' disappearance indicates heightened terrorism risks in northern Benin amid likely continued civil unrest nationwide

Two French tourists went missing in northern Benin's Pendjari National Park on the border with Burkina Faso on Friday (3 May), feared kidnapped after their guide was found dead. The disappearance follows two days of violent protests in the economic capital, Cotonou, and other towns on 1–2 May in which at least four people were killed, following Benin's parliamentary election on 28 April. Security forces fired live ammunition at demonstrators who had blocked roads with burning tyres, set fire to businesses, and attacked government buildings. Only two parties, both of which support President Patrice Talon, were authorised to participate in the election, due to new electoral code requirements. The United Nations, France, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have urged dialogue between the government and the opposition.

Significance: Continuing civil upheaval raises Benin's vulnerability to attacks from regional terrorist groups, although a lack of jihadist networks in the country suggests that operations will be limited to northern border regions. The tourists' disappearance strongly indicates that they have been abducted, probably by the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), and taken over the border to Burkina Faso, heightening risks to foreigners in the Pendjari and W National Parks. Post-election unrest has concentrated security forces around Cotonou and Porto-Novo, leaving the north susceptible to attack. High levels of public dissatisfaction evidenced by the low voter turnout in the 28 April election – 27.1% of registered voters participated, compared with a 66% turnout in 2015 – indicate diminishing trust in Talon and increasing support for the opposition. This will be focused on street protests as the Constitutional Court's validation of the election results means there will be no opposition representation in parliament for the next four years. Anti-privatisation public-sector strikes and further demonstrations involving thousands of protesters are likely if the government does not respond to calls for dialogue or negotiations prove fruitless, and security forces will probably continue responding with lethal force. Government offices and assets belonging to companies perceived to be associated with Talon are likely to be targeted by protesters armed with stones or petrol bombs.