Ceasefire in Yemen’s Hodeidah port city likely to hold until next round of talks in Kuwait

On 22 December 2018, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously approved the advance deployment of a UN team to monitor a ceasefire in Hodeidah, days after peace talks in Sweden on 10 December had resulted in a ceasefire agreement between the Houthi Movement and President Abdurabu Mansour Hadi’s internationally recognised government in the Yemeni port city. On 24 December, the first team of UN monitors visited Hodeidah, where the deployment of monitors is expected to be completed during the course of this week. Once the UN team is deployed, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expected to submit proposals on more substantive monitoring operations for the ceasefire, including a mutual redeployment of forces; support for the management of and inspections at the ports of Hodeidah, Salif, and Ras Issa, and strengthening of the UN presence in the wider Hodeidah region. This would likely turn Hodeidah into a fully demilitarised zone and allow for the potential stabilisation of the area.

Significance: Several violations of the ceasefire agreement have been reported by Yemeni media since the signing of the agreement, with each side blaming the other for non-compliance (see Yemen: 18 Dec 18: Persisting fighting in and around Yemen's Hodeidah port city indicates problematic implementation of UN-brokered ceasefire agreement). There have been, however, no reports of Houthi attacks on Saudi-led coalition or shipping off the Hodeidah coast. IHS Markit assesses that outbreaks of small-scale ground fighting and coalition airstrikes across Hodeidah province are likely to recur, pending the UN team’s full deployment, without resulting in the breakdown of the ceasefire, or a suspension of operations at Hodeidah port, as this would jeopardise the next round of peace talks due at the end of January in Kuwait. Houthi attempts to challenge the agreed hand over of Hodeidah port’s management to the Yemeni government, or their failure to withdraw from the main road linking Hodeidah and the capital, Sanaa, as required by the Stockholm agreement, would, however, be indicators of the ceasefire’s fragility, increasing civil war risks.