West Bank violence likely Hamas attempt to distract from Gaza and discredit Palestinian Authority, violent protests likely

Two members of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) were killed on 13 December in a shooting attack at the Givat Assaf settlement outpost of the West Bank. Earlier in the day, two Israeli police officers were injured in a stabbing attack in Jerusalem's Old City. In both attacks the assailant was a Palestinian resident of the West Bank, and was killed by security forces. A shooting attack on 9 December that killed one and injured six at Ofra settlement was carried out by the son of a Hamas leader in the West Bank.

Significance: The uptick in violence is likely an attempt by Hamas to shift the focus of Israeli security operations away from Gaza, and maintain pressure on the Israeli government to respond. It is unclear whether the attacks were directed by Hamas's leadership, or whether they were the actions of locally based cells acting without specific direction, but both Hamas and Palestinian Jihad have put out statements in praise of the attacks. IHS Markit assesses that the attacks were an attempt by Hamas to emphasise its ongoing relevance in the West Bank and discredit the position of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in the process. There is an elevated risk that the attacks will inspire further attempts at shooting, stabbing, and car rammings on IDF troops stationed throughout the West Bank – the longer-term deployment of additional troops into the coming week will be an indicator of this being more likely, as was the case with the mass arrests and disruption of 2014's Operation Brother's Keeper, as it would likely provoke confrontations and detentions of Palestinian residents. Disruption to road cargo along Route 60, the main West Bank North-South road, as well as limited access to the main West Bank cities of Ramallah, Nablus, and Jenin, would be a trigger for further Palestinian protests. The establishment of Israeli checkpoints within the PA-governed Area A of the West Bank would likely indicate a shift towards a sustained period of violent Palestinian protests, as this would disrupt the West Bank economy immediately prior to the important Christmas tourist period.