Intensifying fighting in northern Chad raises likelihood of troop withdrawal from regional counter-terrorism operations, reducing their effectiveness

Several people were killed in a government offensive on 13 November against an armed self-defence group at Miski in northern Chad. The security forces' operation was led by President Idriss Déby's son Mahamat, who heads the elite presidential guard (Direction Generale de Service and Securite des Institutions de l'Etat: DGSSIE). Fighting initially broke out in August in the gold-producing Tibesti region following incursions by Libya-based insurgents of the Conseil de Commandement Militaire pour le Salut de la République (CCMSR), but the government also wants to repulse a huge influx of artisanal miners. Local militants formed the "self-defence committee" earlier this month to counter the "punitive operation" of the army, which has deployed fighter aircraft to the region. The self-defence group's spokesperson, Mouli Sougui, a former local official, said co-operation with the insurgents cannot be ruled out and accused the Déby family of trying to exploit the gold for itself.

Significance: Postponement of this month's legislative election, cancellation of a trip to Italy on 12 November, and last week's replacement of the security and defence ministers indicate the president's rising concern over events in northern Chad. Militants from Tibesti's Toubou population have historically led insurgencies against President Déby and form the core of the CCMSR. The uptick in attacks has forced Déby to move the bulk of the army to northern Chad. This raises risks of attacks against military personnel, civilians, and foreign workers by jihadists of Jamaat Ahl al-Sunnah li-Dawa wal-Jihad (widely known as Boko Haram) in the now-exposed Lake Chad area, as well as suicide attacks in the Chadian capital, N'Djamena. In addition, the south will be exposed to an overspill of fighting from the Central African Republic, raising risks of looting to non-governmental organisations' property, particularly around Goré, although the Doba oil fields are unlikely to be affected. Domestic defence needs raise the likelihood of Chad withdrawing troops from international missions, which would deprive regional counter-terrorism operations of a key component. President Déby is unlikely to be directly toppled by the insurgents, and ally France would likely assist militarily, but further government or military reshuffles would suggest unease over coup risks from within the president's circle.