Homicides and theft rising in Mexico's San Luis Potosí; narco-message emergence raises collateral death and injury risks

On 6 November 2018, San Luis Potosí's state governor, Juan Manuel Carreras, announced a new public consultation process on drug policy in an effort to tackle rising rates of violence in the state. The consultation will involve non-government organisations, academia, and other groups to determine whether to legalise the consumption of illegal drugs (President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador's team is consider legalisation of marihuana and opium poppy).The plans to stage a consultation in San Luis Potosí comes after a street robbery in the state's capital historic centre resulted in a public shooting that left one dead and 3 wounded, including a police officer, on 5 November. Official data highlight 10,045 reported theft incidents in the state during January–September 2018, or 13.2% higher than during the same period of 2017. Similarly, homicides increased 12.2% during the same period to 423 reported victims. The state's municipalities with the highest murder rates are Villa de Arriaga (74.4 victims per 100,000 inhabitants), Alaquines (62.2), Zaragoza (58.8), and Villa de la Paz (58.6).

Significance: San Luis Potosí state has not been affected by the same levels of drug-related violence seen elsewhere in Mexico. However, over the past year authorities have found narco messages (narcomantas in Spanish) where criminal groups threaten rivals or security forces with violence. On 4 October 2018, for example, alleged members of the Cartel del Noreste (CDN) left four messages threatening members of the Gulf Cartel in the state's capital, three messages in El Naranjo municipality and one in Rio Verde city. There have also been reports of members of the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) leaving messages against the CDN and the Zetas in May 2018. The emergence of frequent narco messages in the state will increase the risk of public confrontations taking place as they generally indicate the beginning of a turf war between criminal organisations. Should such confrontations emerge, local authorities are likely to struggle to contain any violence due to the military being overstretched and focused on hotspots of drug-related violence such as Guerrero, Michoacán, and Tamaulipas state.