New leadership among India's Naxalite militants likely to encourage use of IEDs, increased attacks ahead of elections

On 7 November, Indian media reported that the Communist Party of India (Maoist) (CPI-M) – the primary group leading the Naxalite militancy movement – had undergone a change of leadership approximately two months previously. According to the report, police sources said that Muppala Lakshman Rao, alias Ganapathi, stepped down as CPI-M's general secretary and was replaced by Keshav Rao, alias Basavraj, the chief of CPI-M's Central Military Commission. In February, an IHS Markit source had indicated that this change of leadership was likely (see India: 12 February 2018: Declining Naxalite militant attacks indicate lowering risk in India but promotion of military commander likely to prolong conflict).

Significance: Although attacks by Naxalite militants have declined since reaching a peak in 2009 and are currently focused in the five states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and Odisha (a reduction from a former focus on seven states), Basavraj's promotion is likely to prolong the conflict. The same IHS Markit source said that Basavraj's promotion signals a shift in Naxalite strategy. The militants hitherto attacked security forces by encircling convoys and engaging them in gunfights; however, Basavraj, is a noted expert in the use of explosives, and is accordingly likely to deploy an increasing number of crude improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and landmines along routes used by security forces' convoys. Furthermore, Chhattisgarh (the most affected state) has upcoming assembly elections through November–December 2018, and India's national parliamentary elections are also forthcoming, mostly in the first quarter of 2019. During the election period it is probable that Naxalite militants will broaden their target set, particularly in Chhattisgarh, to include journalists, electoral candidates, election commission officers, and citizens intending to vote. They will mostly deploy similar tactics with the use of IEDs, particularly when the targeted individuals are accompanied by security forces. Joint operations by central and state-level security forces are usually marked by poor co-ordination; the effectiveness of such operations is likely to improve if state-led elite forces are established in each affected state. In May, India's Home Ministry said that Chhattisgarh would receive a specialised combat unit, designated "Black Panther", but there is no confirmation whether the unit has become operational. Furthermore, if Basavraj leads a recruitment drive among the lower-caste communities (as he intends to do), this would be likely to assist CPI-M to strengthen its support base among the lower-caste communities, which have previously complained that an ostensibly pro-lower-caste movement has to date been led by upper-caste Hindus.