Sidama statehood referendum will drive localised protests and small-arms violence, encourage other Ethiopian self-determination movements

The State Council of Ethiopia's Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region (SNNPR) on 2 November accepted a request by its Sidama zone administration to form its own regional state, setting in motion a referendum to be held on this question by August 2019 (the first such referendum under Ethiopia's current constitution). The council also created new zones in Konso and Alaba (out of portions of the Segen Area Peoples' and Kembata Tembaro zones, respectively) and dividing Gamo-Gofa zone in two. Sidama zone is a significant coffee-producing area.

Significance: In Sidama zone, the referendum on statehood and associated rallies are likely to be accompanied by mob violence, including a limited use of edged weapons and small arms, largely ethnically targeted against non-Sidama, particularly ethnic Wolaita. This will likely draw similar reprisal violence in neighbouring Wolaita zone, with the border area of the two particularly likely to see violence, as opposing groups seek to establish 'facts on the ground' ahead of any possible consultations on or demarcation of the border. Such rioting will also increase the risk of looting, vandalism, and arson against foreign-owned commercial cargo vehicles and property, including coffee-washing stations. However, security around the Hawassa industrial park makes it less likely to be directly impacted. The June 2019 Chamabalala festival in Sidama zone will likely be a flashpoint for such violence. Anti-Sidama violence would also likely spark demonstrations and reprisal violence against other SNNPR ethnic groups in Oromia regional state and Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa (especially in its outskirts), due to sympathy for the pro-Sidama statehood Ejjeetto youth campaign by many Oromo Qeerroo activists (see Ethiopia: 14 March 2018: Ethiopian security crackdown in Oromia region will likely spread violent protests, targeting road cargo and commercial property). Sidama statehood would geographically separate Gedeo zone (another significant coffee-producing area, otherwise surrounded by Oromia) from the rest of the SNNPR, and any resulting Gedeo autonomy or statehood demands would likely reignite mob violence between ethnic Gedeos and Oromos in both areas. Border demarcations and the imposition of authority by the administrations of the other new SNNPR zones will pose similar violent risks in these and nearby areas. More widely, the SNNPR's decision will likely embolden similar self-determination movements (for example, among the Wolaita) across Ethiopia, posing similar violent risks. Violent risks are already expected to rise around the local elections in 2019 and general election in 2020 (see Ethiopia: 10 October 2018: Increasing protests, politically and ethnically targeted mobs, and small-arms violence likely in run-up to Ethiopia's 2020 election).