On 1 November 2018, Rio de Janeiro state's Governor-elect Wilson Witzel pledged to create special operations units for each military police battalion that will contain snipers trained to use deadly force against suspected gang members and other criminals. Such a move would broadly align with the hard-line security policy that incoming president Jair Bolsonaro has pledged to introduce upon assuming office on 1 January. During his election campaign, Bolsonaro repeatedly said he would end the punishment of law enforcement and military officials that use deadly force when on duty (regardless of the proportionality of their response to threats). He has also promised to expand the military's role in combatting organised crime, to make it easier for citizens to buy and use guns against suspected criminals, and to reduce the age of criminal responsibility to 16, he later suggested 17.
Significance: In the absence of a congressional majority for the president-elect's Social Liberal Party Partido Social Liberal: PSL), some of these measures may eventually be scaled back in scope. Also, the lack of a guarantee of immunity from prosecution for police snipers will likely cause resistance within the police force itself. Nevertheless, the overall result will likely remain a shift towards a more aggressive security policy in which police and military personnel discharge their weapons more frequently. This will likely serve to provoke further violence by encouraging armed confrontations between the state and heavily armed criminal groups in Rio de Janeiro and Brazil's northeast. Criminal gangs publicly declaring opposition to the new policies would increase the risk of confrontations as well as retaliation in the form of public buses being set on fire. Hard-line policies will also incentive criminal groups to increase their armed capability, increasing death and injury risks and property damage if they opt to start using grenades.
Risks: Crime, Death and injury
Sectors or assets affected: All