Attack on Egyptian police highlights continued targeting of security forces, despite success of counter-terrorism operations

On 27 October, an improvised explosive device (IED) exploded inside the vehicle of a police officer in front of Helwan University, approximately 23 kilometres south of Cairo. Egyptian media reported the officer as being lightly injured; the IED was reported to have been a primitive device using gunpowder and no group has claimed responsibility. Three members of the nationalist-Islamist Hasm Movement were killed in a shoot-out with police on 3 October 2017 approximately 6 km east of Helwan University.

Significance: This is the first violent attack recorded in Helwan since December 2017. Due to the primitive nature of the IED, the lack of a claim of responsibility, and the decision to target a lone security force officer rather than Christians, IHS Markit assesses that the attack on 27 October was very unlikely to have been carried out by the Islamic State. The bombing was most probably carried out by militant nationalist-Islamists. IHS Markit maintains that there is a high likelihood that police and security forces will continue to be targeted by Islamist militants in the one-year outlook. Such attacks are likely to be unsophisticated, involving shooting attacks, primitive IEDs, and thrown incendiaries on isolated checkpoints and police convoys in the poorer areas of Egypt’s urban areas, particularly in Cairo’s Shubra El-Kheima, Helwan, and Imbaba districts. Key indicators of a growing risk from low-capability Islamist groups would include any group claiming responsibility for the attack and increasingly publicising themselves online via social media, suggesting a drive for recruitment. Additionally, if security force raids west of the Suez Canal uncover safe houses used for complex weapons manufacture, such as the vehicle-borne IEDs used by Islamic State in Sinai, this would indicate an improved attack capability and increased terrorism risk.