Violent protests in Guinean capital point to increasing death and injury, cargo disruption risks in six-month outlook

One person was killed during confrontations between supporters of the main opposition Union of Guinea Democratic Forces (Union des Forces Démocratiques de Guinée: UFDG) and security forces in capital Conakry's suburb of Bambéto on 30 October. This was the third death by firearms in two weeks during opposition demonstrations. Renewed political protest has followed a statement by UFDG leader Cellou Dalein Diallo on 27 October that the party would no longer engage in negotiations with the government, opting instead for street demonstrations. The UFDG is protesting against the government's perceived failure to address grievances surrounding local elections on 4 February, which prompted almost two months of daily protests and 13 deaths. The UFDG also accuses the government of reneging on a deal in August, which included an agreement on conditions for legislative elections, postponed from September to January 2019. The government has banned Diallo from attending demonstrations, citing safety concerns, and on 30 October his home in the Dixinn suburb was surrounded by armed police. Diallo has called for protests and "stay at home" days to continue.

Significance: Given the scale, intensity, and duration of protests following local elections, the opposition's hardened resolve indicates a high risk of violence during repeated demonstrations up to and well after the January polls, which may also be postponed again. Another contributing factor is the government's increasingly hardline response to civil unrest. It is similarly refusing to entertain the salary demands of striking teachers, having also ignored demands by striking workers to reduce fuel prices and revoke a controversial port concession (see Guinea: 14 September 2018: Guinean union's opposition to concession agreement indicates persistent protest risk at Conakry port, causing prolonged cargo disruption). Protests will be concentrated in Conakry's northern Ratoma commune, disrupting traffic along the Route le Prince heading to the port and the N1 Fidel Castro highway, along which the city centre airport is located. The scale of protest is likely to intensify if there are further deaths, with the UFDG increasingly denouncing security forces' propensity to use live ammunition. A reduction would be signalled by a renewed government commitment to follow the electoral deal agreed in August.