Violent protests in Comoros indicate growing government instability risk and likelihood of cargo disruption on Anjouan island

Three civilians were killed in Comoros on 16 October after security forces and anti-government protesters exchanged small-arms fire when the military moved in to dismantle barricades that had been set up the previous day in Mutsamudu, capital of the Comorian island of Anjouan. Trees and branches were used to block roads in various parts of the city, including the market area, Habomo, and Fortaleza. The government blamed armed activists of the opposition Juwa Party (Parti Juwa: PJ), as well as Anjouan governor Abdou Salami, and imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew. In July, a referendum – boycotted by opposition parties – approved constitutional changes that would allow President Azali Assoumani to contest two further elections. The presidency hitherto rotated between the Comoros’ three islands every five years, but Assoumani, who came to power in 2016, has called early elections next year, which will likely see him, and the main island of Grande-Comore, retaining the leadership until 2029. Opposition parties have accused Assoumani, who has arrested many of his critics, of a "dictatorial power grab".

Significance: The violent exchanges between security forces and opposition activists indicate the first stirrings of an uprising on the island of Anjouan, where the Juwa Party, led by ex-president Ahmed Abdallah Sambi (currently under house arrest for alleged corruption) enjoys popular support. The military reportedly was unable to access the market area, indicating it will struggle to restore security. Opposition activists, reportedly armed with automatic weapons, are likely to attempt to defy the curfew, with further exchanges of gunfire likely, raising collateral death and injury risks for passers-by. Protesters' barricades will force road closures and traffic disruption, including cargo movements to and from Mutsamudu port. Anti-government demonstrations are also likely to spread to Moheli island, where anti-referendum protests were held in June. The president's unlikely release of Sambi, a key demand of the protesters, would reduce the violence. The more likely arrest of Salami would increase the probability of a separatist conflict and potential for a military coup in response to escalating violent unrest on Anjouan.