Severe risk of violent protests and factional fighting across southern Yemen following STC call for independence

On 3 October, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) released a statement calling for the full independence of Southern Yemen and the establishment of a sovereign state along the pre-1990 North-South border. The STC is a self-declared political entity, backed by the United Arab Emirates and established in May 2017, tasked with representing southern Yemen, rather than President Abdurabu Mansour Hadi’s internationally recognised government. In the statement, the STC urged the southern resistance to be “ready to protect the people until they achieve the full objective of expelling the Hadi government” and called upon the people “to take control of all state institution(s) and expel corrupt officials by all peaceful means”. The STC blames the Hadi government for the worsening economic situation across southern Yemen, where popular protests have persisted since August 2018. On 3 October, Saudi Arabia conceded a grant of USD200 million to Yemen’s central bank to prevent the collapse of the Yemeni rial.

Significance: IHS Markit has previously noted the increasing assertiveness of the STC, whose position has become more intransigent in tandem with the country’s worsening economic crisis and the relaunch of the Saudi-led coalition offensive on Hodeidah in September 2018, in which the bulk of the Yemeni ground troops are southerners. The STC is likely posturing in view of the upcoming meetings with UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffith, who in the meantime is attempting to revive peace talks with the Houthi movement after its collapse on 6 September and in which STC delegates were not invited. The STC statement, however, is likely to trigger a new wave of popular protests across major southern Yemeni cities, especially Aden, Mukalla, Tarim, and Zinjibar. On 5 October, protests were reported in Aden, Mukalla, and Taiz. Any use of force by pro-Hadi corps is likely to aggravate the dispute with the STC and lead to inconclusive fighting between pro-Southern Movement and pro-government forces, mainly in Aden, which is likely to affect strategic locations such as the city’s airport and port. The deployment of Southern Movement military personnel from Mukalla to Aden would be a key indicator pointing to an imminent STC attempt to take control of Aden port and airport and of factional fighting taking place in the city.