Resurgence of inter-communal attacks in Mali's Menaka region likely jihadist tactic to widen conflict

On 30 September, 22 civilians were killed by gunmen in the village of Amalaou-laou near Ansongo, in northeastern Mali's Menaka region. The incident brings to over 60 the number of people killed in a new wave of ethnic attacks in the region since September. There has been no claim of responsibility, but the victims are predominantly from Tuareg sub-clans. On 27 September, 120 paratroopers from France's Barkhane counter-terrorism operation landed in the region, where they joined up with Malian troops to conduct raids. In August, French troops killed Mohamed Ag-Almouner, a leading Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) operative in Menaka.

Significance: The attacks are probably being carried out by ISGS members exploiting historical rivalries between Tuareg and Peul communities in the Menaka region, aimed at triggering a sectarian war between armed groups to scupper Mali's peace agreement and create wider instability in the Sahel. The region is contiguous to jihadist hotspots in Niger and Burkina Faso where attacks against civilians and the military have escalated in recent months. Since Mali's presidential election was concluded in August, there have been fewer reports of jihadist attacks by the Al-Qaeda-linked Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in the northern areas of Gao, Kidal, and Timbuktu, where Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga – who comes from Gao – has had some success in negotiating with armed groups. Indicators of a widening jihadist conflict would include further massacres in Tuareg villages by the Peul-dominated ISGS, to draw in Tuareg pro-government militias and lure foreign troops into unfamiliar territory. The use of more sophisticated weaponry would suggest a shifting focus by the better-equipped JNIM, which announced a collaboration with ISGS in December 2017, and create a high risk of suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices initially targeting the United Nations camps in Ansongo and Menaka. French air power, used in the killing of Almouner, and co-ordination between national armies on the tri-border would reduce the probability of attacks.