Iran-backed tribal insurgency against US in northeastern Syria increases likelihood of IED damage to ground cargo

IHS Markit has recorded a more than seven-fold increase in the number of improvised explosive device (IED) attacks conducted against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and US forces in Raqqa and Hasaka provinces since the announcement of a Sunni Arab tribal resistance movement in eastern Syria on 2 June. Both provinces are controlled and governed by Syria’s Kurdish authorities. In the three months preceding the announcement, we recorded 12 IED attacks combined in Raqqa and Hasaka provinces, compared with 78 in the three months following it. The movement’s stated goal is to remove the United States and its Kurdish proxies in the SDF from traditionally Sunni Arab areas in eastern Syria. The involvement of Liwa al-Baqir, a Syrian pro-government militia led by the Iranian Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), in the formation of the movement suggests financial and material support from Iran.

Number of IED attacks recorded in Syria's Raqqa and Hasaka provinces

IHS Markit

Significance: Some of the IED attacks in Raqqa and Hasaka are likely to have been carried out by Islamic State sleeper cells, but the recorded increase in attacks is most likely the result of a campaign by the tribal resistance movement. There is also likely to be an overlap in motivation and in individuals among those carrying out attacks against the US and SDF on behalf of the Islamic State and/or the tribal resistance movement. A Sunni Arab insurgency in Deir al-Zour, Hasaka, and Raqqa provinces will make it more difficult for the SDF to maintain control of the eastern bank of the Euphrates River, which is predominantly populated by Sunni Arab tribes. The recorded attacks predominantly took the form of roadside IEDs, posing a severe and increasing risk of disruption and damage to ground cargo and transportation in northeastern Syria, in particular any commercial vehicles suspected of carrying supplies for the US-backed forces. Other likely targets include Kurdish political offices, police stations, and security checkpoints in urban centres such as Ain Issa, Hasaka, Qamishli, Raqqa, Shaddadi, and Tabqa. The use of co-ordinated ground assaults against US bases, or larger vehicle-borne IED attacks, would be indicators of a growing capability of the tribal resistance movement and a further deteriorating risk environment for ground cargo.