On 26 September, the government approved new rules on the appointment of the police chief. According to proposed regulations (which must still be approved by parliament), the police chief would be appointed for a four-year term, instead of the current unlimited one. The changes introduce an open selection procedure, effectively increasing the pool of candidates for the position. However, the final decision will be still taken by the Interior Minister. The coalition partner Slovak National Party (Slovenská národná strana: SNS) and the opposition criticised the reform, accusing the government of attempts to win the loyalty of the police by designating trusted people to the service's top management. The opposition's main concern is a stricter procedure of removing the police chief before the end of term, which would require votes of three-fifths of the parliamentary defence and security committee's members.
Significance: The decision about the new procedure comes amid calls of the "For decent Slovakia" group for anti-government protests against the perceived lack of progress in the investigation into the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak. Protests that erupted after the murder of Kuciak and his partner, who were shot dead in February 2018, led to the resignations of Prime Minister Robert Fico, Interior Minister Robert Kalinak and police chief Tibor Gaspar. The new appointment procedure is one of the measures undertaken after Kuciak's murder aimed at increasing trust in public institutions. IHS Markit assesses that the move is not likely to placate the protesters, who demand more serious changes, including snap elections. However, planned protests are likely to be of a moderate scale, with a couple of thousand participants, limited mostly to the capital Bratislava and likely to remain peaceful. Therefore, the likelihood of snap elections or a cabinet reshuffle is not likely to increase. Large-scale corruption allegations implicating the ruling party members, particularly those closely associated with Fico, would be an indicator of increased likelihood of snap elections and would result in large peaceful demonstrations with up to 10,000 participants, that would spread also to other major cities like Košice, Prešov, or Žilina. On the contrary, progress in the murder investigation, such as charging recently detained suspects of Kuciak's murder and providing credible evidence against them, would lead to lower public support for the protests.
Risks: Protests and riots, Political instability
Sectors or assets affected: All