Pakistani intent to respond to Indian helicopter shooting increases risk to low-flying aircraft in Kashmir amid broader escalation

On 30 September, the Indian military fired shots – most likely small-arms fire – at a Pakistani civilian helicopter that, according to Indian officials, strayed 250 metres into Indian-controlled territory across the Line of Control (LoC) near Poonch in Kashmir. The helicopter, which was carrying the prime minister of Azad Kashmir (the self-governing polity of Pakistani-controlled Kashmir), suffered no damage and returned to Pakistani territory shortly following the incident. Pakistani officials confirmed that the helicopter was fired at, but denied that the vehicle crossed the LoC. The officials further noted that although the Pakistani and Indian militaries have established lines of communication to inform one another about the movement of military helicopters near the LoC, no similar risk-mitigation measures exist for low-flying civilian aircrafts. The shooting incident comes shortly after the suspension of bilateral talks between the two sides on 21 September and subsequent comments by senior Indian military officials warning of a robust military response to alleged Pakistani military support for insurgents in Kashmir.

Significance: It is highly likely that the shooting incident was intended as a warning by the Indian military to Pakistan following the suspension of bilateral talks (see India - Pakistan: 25 September 2018: Suspended India-Pakistan bilateral talks indicate increasing risk of Indian cross-border raids and intensified skirmishes in Kashmir). The Indian military's decision to fire at a civilian helicopter in Kashmir and the Pakistani military's highly probable intent to respond in kind increases the risk to civilian low-flying aircraft – most commonly used by local governments on both sides of the border and tourism companies in India – in the six-month outlook. However, both sides will probably prefer to avoid any direct military escalation in Kashmir; military action is therefore likely to remain limited to the use of small-arms as a warning to low-flying aircraft near the LoC, although an elevated risk remains of an accidental shootdown. Although unlikely given the broader deterioration in bilateral ties, any intent to address the lack of risk-mitigation measures to warn of civilian helicopter movement over disputed territory would reduce the risk to civilian helicopters in Kashmir. Separately, the formation of a coalition government in India after elections in the first quarter of 2019 would increase the likelihood of a revival of talks post-election, thus reducing interstate war risks.