Yemen peace talks failure likely to result in renewed coalition push to capture Hodeidah

A UN attempt to revive the stalled Yemeni peace process failed on 8 September 2018, when a Houthi delegation failed to show up in Geneva, Switzerland, where talks had been scheduled with representatives of the Yemen's recognised government and the Saudi-led coalition. In a press conference, UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths said that the UN "had failed to create the proper circumstances for the Houthis to attend the conference". The Houthi delegation alleged that the Saudi-led coalition had failed to grant them the necessary authorisation to fly from Sanaa, which the Saudi-led coalition has denied. The Houthi had previously set a series of conditions to be met before they would take part in talks, including the transportation of wounded insurgents to Oman, the repatriation of those who had already received treatment there, and a guarantee that the Houthi delegation would be allowed to return to Sanaa from Geneva. The movement also wanted the UN to guarantee that the plane carrying its delegation would not be inspected by coalition forces, a demand which was likely refused by the coalition.

Significance: The failure of the talks even before their start highlights the UN failure to build the appropriate confidence-building measures to restart any substantive peace negotiation and the warring sides' unwillingness to take a backward step to facilitate the talks; primarily a halt to all military operations. Although IHS Markit does not consider the peace process to have definitively broken down (new informal discussions are scheduled over the coming weeks in Muscat, Oman), the current deadlock will likely be followed by a renewed coalition push to capture the Houthi-controlled port city of Hodeidah, where ground fighting between coalition-backed Yemeni forces and Houthi militants, involving both sides' use of heavy weapons and coalition airstrikes, is likely to intensify in the coming days especially on the southern and eastern approaches into the city, increasing the risk of both targeted and collateral damage to property and strategic infrastructure, including the port and airport. A key indicator pointing to a total breakdown of the peace process would be a statement released by the Yemeni legitimate government announcing its intention to withdraw from any form of dialogue with the Houthi leadership.