Opposition campaign suppression increases likelihood of protest and riots, and sanctions on personnel following Maldives' presidential election

On 7 September 2018, Maldives’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement condemning the United States’ intent to issue sanctions against the country. This follows a 5 September announcement in which the US said it would ‘take action’ against individuals interfering with the free and free conduct of Maldives’ presidential elections. In the run-up to the 23 September elections, multiple media and human rights organisations have released reports of sustained suppression of the opposition coalition’s (led by Maldivian Democratic Party – MDP) campaign by incumbent President Abdulla Yameen’s government. Most recently, in September 2018, MDP’s offices across Addu, Haa Alif and Alif Dhaal atolls were vandalised, allegedly by Yameen’s supporters.

Significance: Particularly given Yameen’s reported crackdown on the opposition, there have been multiple credible media reports of significant voter support for the MDP: notably on 8 September, MDP held its first rally in Male, attended by hundreds of supporters. Despite the support, however, increased likelihood of vote rigging and voter registration fraud by Yameen will most probably result in him retaining the presidency; allegations to this effect have been made by the MDP and by international election observers (including India, US and EU). In the post-election outlook where Yameen wins, civil unrest is quite likely, mostly in Male and Addu: this will involve hundreds of people rallying around the presidential residence, parliament, the Supreme Court and Republic Square probably rejecting the election outcome. These will probably turn violent, especially if security forces use live fire in the air to disperse protesters. Furthermore, the US and even the EU will probably issue travel bans and economic sanctions against individuals in Yameen’s government and in the MNDF. In the post-election outlook, violent civil unrest is likely to trigger contract reviews by Yameen in opposition-owned tourism operations. Importantly, the government crackdown is sustained by MNDF support for Yameen; any indication of reducing support – including the forces being less inclined to control such protests – would increase the probability of Yameen being forced to resign (see Maldives: 20 March 2018: Maldives' president unlikely to be ousted in coup unless faction of armed forces turns against him).