Labour strikes and protests affecting non-strategic sectors likely to become more co-ordinated in Ecuador in coming months

On 29 August 2018, thousands of members of the United Workers Front (Frente Unitario de Trabajadores (FUT), Ecuador's largest trade union federation held a march in Quito to protest several economic measures adopted by the government through 2018. These include a reduction in gasoline (petrol) subsidies and planned redundancies in the public sector caused by the government's austerity drive that includes a restructuring of ministries, and state-owned enterprises in the public construction, pharmaceutical, and manufacturing sectors. The FUT, alongside other civil society groups representing students, teachers, peasant farmers, and pensioners are planning a national march on 20 September. Separately, the country's largest indigenous umbrella organisation, the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador, resolved on 29 August to hold a national protest towards the end of October over the same issues. The government is very unlikely to capitulate and reverse these measures; In June public debt reached almost USD48 billion, or 46.1% of GDP. IHS Markit forecasts the fiscal deficit to reach close to 5% of GDP in 2018.

Significance: Opposition to the government is likely to mainly take the form of labour strikes, particularly in the public sector, supported by peaceful protest marches involving thousands at a time, towards Quito and other major cities including Cuenca and Guayaquil. Crucially, the 2008 constitution prohibits strikes in strategic sectors including hydrocarbon production and transport, telecommunications, electric energy, health workers, and public transport. Workers in strategic sectors are unlikely to participate in unauthorised work stoppages given the high likelihood of dismissal. The likely convergence of labour, civil society, and indigenous opposition to the government's economic measures would increase the risk of co-ordinated strike action in non-strategic sectors, and also of larger recurring protests capable of causing more significant disruption to commercial activity including roadblocks of major highways in the latter part of 2018. Submission of a legal challenge to the constitutional court to dispute existing restrictions on the right to strike would indicate a rapidly increasing risk of co-ordinated strike action and protests by civil society groups.