New Costa Rican government's anti-trafficking security operations likely to reduce operational constraints including cargo robberies and homicides

On 28 August 2018, US authorities in Delaware and the National Police of Spain in Madrid reported the confiscation and destruction of pineapple shipments containing over 112 kilogramme of cocaine from Costa Rica. The shipments had originated in Costa Rica's San Carlos region where Italian pineapple exporter Salvatore Ponzo was assassinated on 24 May; authorities are still investigating links between Ponzo's death and his export business. Authorities have blamed the increase in homicides, from 8.5 per 100,000 in 2012 to 12.1 per 100,000 in 2017, on increased trafficking activities. Earlier in August, Security Minister Michael Soto Rojas visited Moín port, Limón, to co-ordinate with private businesses on cargo shipment security while authorities conducted anti-trafficking raids in Alajuela, Heredia, Puntarenas, and San José, on 22 August. Additionally, the National Chamber of Freight Carriers (Canatrac) indicated that companies lost more than USD10 million in transportation equipment and merchandise robberies in 2017, where incidents, concentrated in Alajuela and Limón, more than doubled over 2016.

Significance: Costa Rica's shipping security is increasingly likely to stabilise over the next 12 months if the new government's strategy is supported by dedicated budget financing. Since 11 May 2018, there have been over 30 so-called 'megaoperativos', or co-ordinated operations, between Costa Rica's security and justice sectors targeting specific crimes modalities and hot spots. The operations also serve to concentrate scarce resources at a time when the deteriorating economic situation in Costa Rica threatens to reduce security budgets (IHS Markit forecasts the overall fiscal balance is expected to reach -6.7% of GDP). A key indicator to watch will be 2019 government budget allocations for security operations, increases for which would likely indicate government endorsement that megaoperativos continue to be a successful strategy. Collaborations with local communities for extended operations in hot spots into 2019 would be a likely evolution of the strategy, decreasing operational disruptions next year. Alternatively, statements from shipping unions registering frustration with continuing cargo losses under the new government's security plan will indicate that recent security improvements have not been sustained, most likely the result of ongoing fiscal constraints, and that operational risks continue to worsen.