Provisional disqualification of high-profile opposition candidate increases likelihood of contested DRC election, urban riots, and militant violence

In its provisional candidates list, published on 25 August, the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) Independent National Electoral Commission (Commission Électorale Nationale Indépendante: CENI) declared ineligible six candidacies for the upcoming presidential election, most notably that of former vice president and armed group leader Jean-Pierre Bemba. CENI cited Bemba's conviction for witness tampering at the International Criminal Court (ICC) as justification for this (see Democratic Republic of Congo: 11 June 2018: Return of former DRC vice-president would likely increase civil war and militancy threats, including in capital), notably in line with the statements of a spokesperson for incumbent president Joseph Kabila's ruling Presidential Majority (Majorité Présidentielle: MP) on 27 July. The definitive list of presidential candidates will not be published until 19 September, after review by the Constitutional Court.

Significance: A contestation of the election by DRC's opposition would increase the likelihood of sustained anti-government protests after 19 September in major urban areas (including Kinshasa and Lubumbashi), with localised rioting in 'opposition' and Congolese residential neighbourhoods, and increasing anti-government militant violence, in particular in eastern DRC, the northern and central Katanga region, and the Kasai region, and to a lesser extent in rural parts of Kongo Central province and northwest DRC (see Democratic Republic of Congo: 10 August 2018: "Dauphin" announcement likely manoeuvre to keep incumbent DRC president dominant, but successor would probably consolidate power). Bemba's opposition Movement for the Liberation of the Congo (Mouvement de Libération du Congo: MLC) is likely to reject the electoral process if he is not allowed to stand, and to be joined in this by supporters of opposition exile Moïse Katumbi (see Democratic Republic of Congo: 6 May 2016: Former governor's presidential candidacy increases risk of protests, government crackdown, and intra-military fighting in DRC's Katanga region). This rejection would be compounded if the candidacy of the most significant remaining opposition leader, Felix Tshisekedi, is also disqualified during the Constitutional Court review. This would leave Vital Kamerhe as the sole high-profile opposition candidate, but he lacks comparable support to Bemba, Katumbi, or Tshisekedi. In the short term, CENI's 25 August announcement will likely increase turnout for the 3 September nationwide marches (against new voting machines) organised by the Fight for Change (Lutte pour le Changement: LUCHA) civil society group, particularly in Kinshasa and western DRC (where Bemba's supporters are concentrated) if the MLC endorses the protests.