Territorial exchange of disputed border areas likely to reduce communal violence and cargo risks along Kyrgyz-Uzbek border

Kyrgyz and Uzbek governments are making progress in their efforts to finalise the delimitation and demarcation of state borders, which is complicated by the existence of exclaves administered by each state inside the other’s territory. The existence of Uzbek exclaves in southern Kyrgyzstan in particular has been the source of recurrent ethnically motivated communal violence in the past. On 14 August, the deputy governor of Kyrgyzstan’s southern region of Osh, Bayiysh Yusupov, revealed that the two sides are negotiating the possibility of swapping Kyrgyzstan’s exclave of Barak, which occupies 230 square hectares in Uzbekistan, in exchange for an equivalent area on the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border. According to Yusupov, Barak, which has a population of 75 Kyrgyz citizens, supports the proposed exchange as its citizens have faced difficulties travelling to and from Kyrgyzstan. The exchange has been approved by the bilateral working group, but will require endorsement by the two governments, their respective legislatures, and final signature of both presidents; this will probably take another 2–3 months at least. To date, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have agreed on 1,170 km out of the total 1,378 km of their shared border.

Significance: Should this territorial exchange materialise, as is likely, it will set a precedent for further exchanges, including Uzbekistan’s much larger exclaves of Sokh (area: 352 square km; population: 55,000) and Shakhimardan (90 sq km; 2,000) in Kyrgyzstan’s Batken region. IHS Markit assesses that there is sufficient political will at the highest level of government on both sides to move forward with the finalisation of border delimitation and demarcation agreements; these will probably involve a series of territorial exchanges involving Uzbek exclaves in southern Kyrgyzstan. The success of this process will very likely reduce incidents of ethnic communal violence along the border, and also risks of road closures by locals that often lead to delays for cross-border shuttle traders. Further indicators of reduced interstate and civil war risks would include an expansion of the working group’s discussion to include Sokh and Shakhimardan exclaves and an announcement of confidence-building measures aimed at easing travel for their residents.