Chechnya attacks indicate shift to younger jihadist recruitment in Russia’s North Caucasus, increasing likelihood of low-capability attacks

On 20 August 2018, a series of four co-ordinated terrorist attacks occurred in Chechnya, a Muslim-majority republic in southern Russia, which led to one police officer and four attackers being killed, and four police officers and one civilian bystander being injured. The attacks were carried out in Grozny, Chechnya’s capital, but also in Shali and Mesker-Yurt, some 20 km away. The attacks involved knifing, vehicle impact and small-capability crude improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Their probable aim was to disrupt the Eid al-Adha Muslim holiday on 21-25 August. The police claimed that the attackers were aged between 11 and 18. Both the Islamic State and Imarat Kavkaz’s Vilayat Dagestan, an Al-Qaeda-affiliated group, claimed the responsibility for these attacks. The latest attack was the fifth claimed by the Islamic State in Chechnya and the 22nd claimed in the North Caucasus since 2015. Imarat Kavkaz has not claimed attacks in the Russian North Caucasus since December 2014 (see Russia: 2 September 2015: Islamic State's takeover of North Caucasus jihadist movement will potentially lead to increasing radicalisation in Russia).

Significance: These attacks indicate a likely shift to a younger base for jihadist recruitment in North Caucasus republics in Russia. Children are probably targeted as they are easier to recruit and indoctrinate, especially for missions with a low survival rate for the attackers – and also with lower risk of detection by the counter-terrorism measures implemented by the security services prior any future attacks. If the Islamic State’s claim of responsibility is corroborated, it would indicate that the use of children soldiers, which has been documented in Syria, has now been transplanted to North Caucasus. This indicates ongoing high threat of low-capability terrorism attacks involving vehicle impact, knifing, use of small-arms and crude low-capability IEDs, mostly targeting police and security forces personnel and assets in the Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria republics, which have Muslim majorities, high levels of poverty, high school drop-out rates and high youth unemployment, thus providing a pool of potential jihadist recruits. The counter-radicalisation measures deployed by the law enforcement agencies in the North Caucasus republics would serve as an indicator to watch .