Politicisation of Iraq’s southern protests likely to increase business disruption and factional violence.

On 19 July, the Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose reformist coalition with the Communist party won the largest number of votes in the May 2018 election, called for government formation talks to be suspended until protesters’ demands have been met. Protests in southern provinces have been ongoing since 7 July triggered by cuts in the electricity supply by Iran, but driven by poor public services, high unemployment, and rampant government corruption. President Fuad Masum announced on 17 July the extension of the cabinet until a new government has been formed, giving the current government led by Haider al-Abadi continued executive authority.

Significance: The protests across the south remain largely uncoordinated grassroots demonstrations, but they have become increasingly politicised. Politicians are accusing rivals of stoking protests to slow down government formation talks to their advantage. The pro-Iran State of Law coalition, led by former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, who is excluded from government talks, has been especially vocal in accusing Sadr and Saudi Arabia of influencing the protests, which have included expression of anti-Iranian sentiments. Abadi’s rivals are likely to try to weaken his chances of re-election which would further complicate government formation talks since he is one of the strongest compromise candidates for a national unity government. Sadr’s statement of support for the protests increases the likelihood of demonstrations continuing to block access to oil and gas facilities for six to eight weeks. An indicator of increased risk would be co-ordinated demonstrations by Sadrists in southern provinces and in Baghdad, this would increase the risk of violence between Sadrists and supporters of the Iranian-aligned Shia militias. A death toll would severely complicate the alliance between Sadr and the militias, a pre-requisite for a national unity government. A broad national unity government remains the most likely outcome with formation talks likely to take six months. An indicator of decreased risk would be if Sadr expresses renewed support to Abadi, however this is unlikely to diffuse the ongoing protests as they have so far resisted being co-opted by political groups.