Tribal conflict in south Iraq likely to increase, exacerbated by returning PMU fighters and oil sector growth

The governorate council of Maysan, in south-central Iraq, held an emergency session on 26 December 2017 about the escalation of tribal conflict in the province that month and tribal control of border crossings, and requested a meeting with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. As of 11 January 2018, the request has not been met and a joint operation by regional troops from outside the governorate, supported by the air force, launched on 25 December, has not ended the conflict. The reported levels of daily exchanges of small-arms and rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) fire at the al-Shib border crossing, and across the governorate are still low compared with much of the rest of Iraq, but show a rapid escalation for Maysan. The source of the tribal dispute is focused on the al-Shib border crossing with Iran, and disagreement over revenue sharing, including competition over oil smuggling. The Maysan council has repeatedly asked the federal government to intervene since local security forces have tribal and party connections, but federal forces’ commitment to search-and-destroy operations against the Islamic State has prevented anything other than short-term deployments. Meanwhile, the disintegration of the Islamic State’s territorial control has led to calls to dismantle the Shia-dominated Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMU), which are left without a clear role.

Significance: The return of young PMU fighters to their homes in southern Shia-majority provinces, where they face an uncertain future, is likely to exacerbate rivalry for already strained local resources, especially employment, and will also add to the proliferation of weapons. The benefits from ongoing oil business expansion in southern Halfaya city and the oil field in Maysan are likely to also be a source of competition between the rival tribes. Abadi has yet to take a decision on tribal control of border crossings and this will likely serve as an indicator for other oil-rich provinces, notably Basra, over how the federal government will deal with governance issues in Shia-dominated areas – and the consequent risks to the oil sector.