Risk of kidnap and murder by FARC dissidents rising along Ecuador-Colombia border, particularly in Esmeraldas and Nariño

On 4 July, Colombian authorities reported that they had recovered the bodies of two Ecuadorian nationals near Tumaco, in Colombia's Nariño department. The pair were kidnapped in April by a dissident faction of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) led by alias Guacho. They had appeared in a video calling on Ecuadorian President Lenín Moreno to negotiate with the dissidents, who want an end to security force operations against their drug trafficking activities along the border. In March, the dissident group kidnapped two Ecuadorian journalists and their driver near Mataje, in Ecuador's Esmeraldas department, and subsequently murdered them after the Ecuadorian government refused to withdraw troops from the border area. The group has also been responsible for a series of improvised explosive device attacks against state security forces in Esmeraldas. A separate group of FARC dissidents has been reported in the Ecuadorian province of Sucumbíos, where authorities have discovered at least two camps used by the group. Although no attacks have occurred in Sucumbíos, the Ecuadorian authorities claim to have found evidence of the group extorting local community members.

Significance: Until the death or capture of Guacho and his men, the risk of kidnap and murder will be very high in Esmeraldas and Nariño. The governments of Colombian and Ecuadorian have increased operations against the dissident faction, capturing Guacho's brother and killing six members of the organisation in separate operations in June. Guacho's initial motivation to kidnap was to influence the Ecuadorian government, increasing kidnap risks for Ecuadorian nationals. However, the Colombian government's recent actions against the group make it likely that Guacho will seek to put pressure on the Colombian government by targeting its citizens. Nationals from China, Europe, and North America, who collectively make up much of the foreign investment in Colombia and Ecuador, are also likely to be high-value targets. Confrontations between dissident insurgents and Ecuadorian security forces in neighbouring Sucumbíos, which has a significant oil and gas sector located around Lago Agrio, would provide an indicator of kidnap risks increasing in that province, as dissident FARC factions adopt similar strategies to pressure the government.