The National Police reported on 7 July that 2,810 people had been arrested in the first 48 hours of the launch of joint police and military patrolling operation to tackle violent crime in the capital Santo Domingo and nationwide. The operation was launched after President Danilo Medina recognised on 4 July that a "wave of violence was affecting the country" following several armed robberies including two at bank branches in less than one month. A branch of Banco Popular Dominicano was robbed in the Hiper Uno shopping centre in Santo Domingo on 29 June, and a branch of Banco Vimenca located on Independencia Avenue of the northern city of Santiago de los Caballeros was robbed on 23 June. In both events, armed robbers used assault rifles and bulletproof vests. The homicide rate in the Dominican Republic is 16.1 per every 100,000 inhabitants – relatively lower than in other Central American and Caribbean countries such as Honduras (42.8 per every 100,000 inhabitants), Guatemala (27.3 per every 100,000 inhabitants), and Jamaica (59 per 100,000 inhabitants).
Significance: Gun-related violence is likely to increase in the one-year outlook. The launch of the joint police-military operation is a political response rather than a comprehensive plan to deal with elevating gun violence. The plan does not tackle the causes of the rise in violent crime, which IHS Markit assesses is increasing drug trafficking. According to the US International Narcotics Control Strategy Report 2018, the Dominican Republic is the top transshipment hub for drugs passing through the Caribbean with approximately 6% of the cocaine transported to the United States and Europe travelling through the country. This is likely to increase gun-related violence since Dominican gangs are elevating their capabilities due to payments mainly with weapons and drugs and inter-actions with larger transnational drug trafficking organisations to which they provide logistical support. A key indicator to watch is if armed gangs start using grenades to stage armed robberies, as is the case in Mexico and Venezuela, as a sign of increased capabilities and weaponry.
Risks: Violent crime; Death and injury
Sectors or assets affected: All sectors