Ethiopia will probably lift state of emergency, forced change of government unlikely despite growing securocrat-PM split

The Ethiopian Council of Ministers on 2 June approved a draft law that would lift the state of emergency, which has been in place since 16 February and is due to expire in early August (see Ethiopia: 21 February 2018: Ethiopia's ruling coalition likely to remain stable after appointing consensus replacement for outgoing PM by end-March). Removing the state of the emergency early is another concession to the opposition and to demonstrators in Oromia region by new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, chairman of the Oromo People's Democratic Organisation. This makes it unlikely that anti-government demonstrations will resume immediately following the lifting of the state of emergency.

Significance: Since taking office on 2 April, Prime Minister Ahmed has commenced talks with opposition parties to amend the country's anti-terrorism law, which is widely used to stifle political dissent, and pardoned Andargachew Tsige, a prominent leader of the opposition Patriotic Ginbot 7 (PG-7), who had previously been sentenced to death under the aforementioned law. However, concerns among the security services and the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) party, which historically dominated the ruling coalition before Ahmed's rise, are likely to be stoked by these overtures, as well as Ahmed's 1 June speech calling for a more "professional" army and his reshuffle in late May of the Metals and Engineering Corporation's (MeTEC) board of directors (MeTEC is owned by TPLF-affiliated senior military figures). Although Ahmed is likely to have the support of TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael in these actions, further moves, such as attempts to quickly diversify top military ranks, which remain dominated by ethnic Tigrayans, will likely draw more explicit opposition from securocrats. While remaining unlikely, this would increase the risk of a coup attempt against Ahmed by these elements, particularly if they are joined by Eastern Command forces close to the president of Ethiopia's Somali region, Abdi Iley (Abdi Mohamed Omar), who is on poor terms with Ahmed (see Ethiopia: 25 April 2018: New Ethiopian PM's approach towards demonstrators' demands, contraband networks will determine protest and violence one-year outlook). A key indicator of TPLF sentiment will be the extent to which its legislators dissent in the parliamentary vote required to lift the state of emergency, which is likely to be passed regardless, probably in the next two weeks.