Ineffective Nigerian government response to surging farmer-herder killings risks violent protests spreading to Middle Belt cities

Pall bearers carry coffins in Benue state capital Makurdi on 11 January during the funeral service for people killed during clashes between herders and farmers.

Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP/Getty Images: 903899566

A report issued by human-rights organisation Amnesty International yesterday (30 January 2018) has deepened the debate about the Nigerian government's ineffective response to surging violence between farmers and herdsmen who mostly belong to the Fulani ethnic group. Amnesty accused the Nigerian air force of using a helicopter and jet aircraft to bomb houses and target civilians trying to hide as hundreds of herdsmen took part in a revenge attack on communities in Adamawa state on 4 December 2017. A total of 86 people were killed, according to Amnesty, with the air force responsible for 35 of the deaths, and raiding herdsmen the remainder, while at least 3,000 homes were destroyed in five villages. Two weeks earlier, ethnic-Fulani settlements had been attacked in Kikan village in Adamawa state, with at least 30 killed, mostly women and children. The Nigerian air force's public relations director denied the Amnesty claims and told local media that the air raids were "warning shots – not shots to kill" and that they had a "positive effect" because they caused people to flee the area.

Violent confrontations between herders and farmers have been widely reported for at least the last decade in Nigeria, particularly in the Middle Belt states along the fault line between the mainly Muslim north and the majority Christian south. However, the scale of killings in the past few months has been unprecedented, with non-governmental organisation (NGO) the International Crisis Group warning that the issue could become "as potentially dangerous as the Boko Haram [jihadist] insurgency in the north-east". Amnesty estimates that 168 people have been killed in farmer-herder confrontations in January alone, with the deaths concentrated in five states – Adamawa, Benue, Kaduna, Ondo, and Taraba.

The worst-hit state has been Benue, which on 1 November 2017 introduced a law against open grazing, a move that has been matched by Taraba and Ekiti states. Benue state governor Samuel Ortom said the law was necessary as "for close to five years, herdsmen have killed thousands of Benue people, and it was almost becoming a pogrom". However, 73 villagers were killed by raiders in Logo and Guma Local Government Areas during 1–6 January, mostly on New Year's Day, and were given a mass burial in state capital Makurdi on 11 January, when several speakers called for local militias to be raised and criticised government inaction. Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari ordered the inspector-general of police to relocate to the state, with five additional police units, while Nigerian media have reported that special forces have been deployed to Benue and Taraba.

However, Buhari and other federal government representatives have been critical of states introducing anti-grazing laws, saying they were exacerbating a difficult situation. Defence Minister Mansur Dan Ali said a major reason for violent confrontations was that migratory grazing routes which were codified in 1965 no longer existed in practice due to the expansion of farming areas under population pressure. Drought and desertification have forced herders and their estimated 135 million head of cattle to move south, encroaching on land under cultivation and provoking violence. The Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders' Association (MACBAN), which represents Fulani herders, estimates that more than 1,000 have been killed and two million cattle lost since June 2017 alone.

Outlook and implications

The spike in violence is partly due to a cycle of reprisal attacks, most clearly seen during the events in Adamawa. However, this is driven by communities taking matters into their own hands because there has been no sign of a response from the government or evidence of preventative measures to de-escalate the situation. Apart from reactive security measures in Benue and Adamawa, the only initiative to have been presented by Buhari has been a committee to investigate the possibility of establishing large ranches, an idea that has been rejected out of hand by MACBAN.

More damaging for Buhari is the persistent accusation from victims of herder violence, political opponents, and even a few dissident voices in the president's All Progressives Congress (APC) party that, as a cattle-owning ethnic Fulani himself, he is sympathetic to the herders' cause. His inaction is being contrasted with the concerted military offensive against the Boko Haram Islamist militant group and the abrupt response to choke off Biafran secessionist agitation, which included declaring the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) a terrorist group on the flimsiest of evidence (see Nigeria: 22 September 2017: Banning of Nigerian secessionist group likely to provoke protests and riots but reduce civil war risks). Buhari's opponents say he should be treating herder violence as terrorism, particularly as both the Department of State Services security agency and the Office of the Presidency stated earlier this month that Islamic State militants have infiltrated groups of herdsmen in Benue, Kogi, and other Middle Belt states and are responsible for some of the most extreme acts of violence in order to foment ethnic and sectarian hatred.

Buhari is also being weakened politically by this issue as it is costing him support in several crucial states where factors such as winning a large majority over incumbent Goodluck Jonathan in Benue swung the 2015 presidential election his way. Buhari's candidacy for a second term in office is already contested within the APC, particularly after the publication of a critical assessment of his failings on 23 January 2018 by former president Olusegun Obasanjo (see Nigeria: 25 January 2018: Former leader's critical letter likely to severely damage Nigerian president's chances of securing second term in 2019). In the likely event Buhari does not intervene in the next few weeks with a credible action plan to halt farmer-herder violence, and mass killings continue to take place with impunity, it is likely that violent protests will spill over into central cities such as Jos and Kaduna, where sectarian violence has broken out at various times in the last two decades and lasted up to a week, usually prompted by terrorist incidents or political rivalry. This will lead to high collateral risks of death and injury, as well as disruption to ground cargo and normal business activities.