Progress on state capture investigations increases probability South African president will resign before parliament reconvenes

New ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa addresses supporters at the party's 106th anniversary celebrations in East London on 13 January 2018.

Mujahid Safodien/AFP/Getty Images: 904474034

South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) celebrated its 106th anniversary on 13 January 2018, with new party president Cyril Ramaphosa making the keynote address in East London. When President Jacob Zuma turned up 40 minutes late, the head of state was roundly booed. Ramaphosa, the national deputy president, silenced the jeers by saying it was a day for rejoicing, but noted, "This year we started things out on time, and this is a clear signal that things are changing."

Ramaphosa then set out what he wants to change, after being narrowly elected at the ANC's conference on 18 December 2017, ahead of Zuma's preferred candidate, his former wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Although the ANC conference had voted in favour of land expropriation without compensation, Ramaphosa told investors this would not be done in a way that would impede economic development, agricultural production, and food security. He prioritised a social pact between government, labour, businesses, and communities to reignite growth and accelerate the process of transformation. Ramaphosa also emphasised the need for the intelligence services, police, and prosecutorial authorities to be strengthened because they had to be "at the forefront of the fight against corruption and state capture".

Ramaphosa returned to institutional reform in an interview with state broadcaster SABC on 14 January, saying that the ANC had to restore the credibility of public institutions, including state-owned companies and law enforcement agencies by removing undue political interference. He is due to name a successor to National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) director Shaun Abrahams, whose appointment by Zuma was invalidated on 8 December 2017 by the High Court, as it is the NPA head who will decide whether to proceed with 783 corruption charges Zuma is facing, relating to a 1999 arms deal.

Zuma has also been forced by court action to agree to a judicial inquiry into allegations of state capture, which will likely focus on allegations that businessmen the Gupta brothers used their influence with the president to dictate cabinet appointments and direct state contracts to firms they controlled or in which they had an interest, allegations that they deny. Ramaphosa told SABC, however, that prosecutions "must commence immediately and not wait for a commission". The following day, the Asset Forfeiture Unit of the NPA confirmed it had placed ZAR1.6 billion (USD130 million) of assets belonging to Gupta-linked companies Trillian and McKinsey under curatorship while it investigated whether the equivalent sum paid to them by state power utility Eskom was tied up with unlawful activities such as theft, fraud, money laundering, and corruption. The NPA confirmed on 16 January it has identified a total of 17 cases, with a possible ZAR50 billion (USD4 billion) of recoverable assets, from state-capture investigations.

Outlook and implications

When Ramaphosa won the ANC presidency, there was much talk in the party and South African media of two centres of power, and Zuma retaining a strong influence in the ANC thanks to almost half of the members of the party's influential National Executive Committee (NEC) coming from the Dlamini-Zuma camp. However, it is rapidly becoming apparent in words and deeds that Ramaphosa is completely in the ascendancy, and Zuma is being deserted. After the initial meeting of the new ANC leadership on 10 January, while denying Zuma's removal was discussed, Zuma ally and new ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule said that rather than two centres of power, there was only one – the ANC. That is now firmly controlled by Ramaphosa, and though he has been openly talking of not wanting to "humiliate" Zuma, there is little doubt he wants the president out quickly in order to seize the policy initiative and start repairing the structural and institutional damage caused during Zuma's tenure, ahead of the 2019 general election.

As Ramaphosa has indicated, he would ideally want Zuma to take the initiative of resigning, but the president would want certain guarantees before leaving. There is a limited amount Ramaphosa can offer because the state capture inquiry is under way, legal cases are already in motion which may uncover Zuma's deep involvement in state capture, and Ramaphosa cannot in any case grant Zuma any overt leniency on corruption issues after the strident public line he has taken on the issue. However, Ramaphosa can still have an impact on the pace and breadth of cases launched by the NPA, as well as influence the decision over whether to reinstate the 783 charges by his selection of the new NPA director. These factors act as a powerful incentive for Zuma not to wait too long.

Zuma will not have much time to consider as it is increasingly likely that Ramaphosa wants to make the State of the Nation address rather than Zuma on 8 February. Ramaphosa is already in place to attend the World Economic Forum instead of Zuma in Davos, Switzerland, on 23–26 January, as he tries to set a new tone for South Africa's economic policy. Zuma's supporters within the ANC have already saddled Ramaphosa with populist policies such as free tertiary education, land expropriation, and nationalisation of the South African Reserve Bank, the central bank. So Ramaphosa will want to lay out his own programme, expanding on the themes he identified at the ANC birthday celebrations, in order to restore business confidence, boost investment, and prevent further sovereign credit rating downgrades.

Additionally, the State of the Nation address marks the start of the parliamentary session, at which point the opposition Democratic Alliance and Economic Freedom Fighters would have the opportunity to regain the initiative to remove Zuma by submitting its own no-confidence vote. The key indicators for an early Zuma departure are calls from former allies for him to step down, indicating a critical weakening of his crumbling power base, and reports that the NEC is considering a recall vote. Zuma does not constitutionally have to resign if the NEC goes against him, but he would most likely then face the humiliation of an immediate no-confidence vote proposed by his own party when parliament reconvenes.