Security services' increased anti-terrorism effort likely to mitigate risk of successful attacks on soft targets in Russia

On 12 December 2017, Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the Russian Federal Security Service (Federalnaya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti; FSB) said that it had foiled a terrorist attack planned for the New Year celebrations in Moscow. According to Bortnikov, on 11 December in the Moscow region the FSB detained three nationals of undisclosed Central Asian states, allegedly linked to the Islamic State, who had been preparing terrorism attacks, including suicide missions, for the period of the New Year festivities in the Russian capital. The FSB reportedly seized crude IEDs, explosives, small-arms and ammunition during the detentions. Bortnikov claimed that since the start of 2017, the FSB prevented 61 unspecified terrorism-motivated crimes, including 18 intended attacks. He also claimed that the FSB had detained over 1,000 alleged terrorists and killed 78. Additionally, the FSB claimed to have had prevented 17,500 foreign nationals suspected of links to terrorist organisations from entering Russia.

Significance: IHS Markit assesses that the Russian security services have, as claimed, increased their anti-terrorism effort in the past year. This is likely to reduce risks of mass casualty terrorism attacks in Russia, especially against soft targets in Moscow, St Petersburg and other large population centres. Increased FSB anti-terrorism activity is likely partly accounted for by the government’s need to foster public confidence in security ahead of the presidential elections in March 2018 and the 2018 FIFA World Cup, to be held in 11 cities in Russia on June-July 2018 (see Russia: 19 October 2017: Foreign visitors to 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia face elevated injury risks, collateral damage to property). Assorted jihadist groups, including some claiming affiliation to the Islamic State, will likely retain the motivation, and at least limited capability, for attacks on soft targets in Russia, including outside the North Caucasus, the core area for jihadist operations in support of a separatist insurgency (see Russia: 9 August 2017: Soft targets in Russia face elevated terrorism threat in one-year outlook, despite FSB claim of improved security). The large number of terrorism-linked detentions in 2017 indicates early detection and penetration of terrorist cells. The last successful attack against a soft target outside the North Caucasus region was the metro train bombing in St Petersburg on 3 April 2017, which caused 16 fatalities and 51 injuries (see Russia: 3 April 2017: Explosion on St Petersburg metro indicates elevated terrorism risks to soft targets in key urban centres in Russia).