Defection of serial presidential aspirant from ruling party highlights probability of Nigerian president successfully seeking second term

Atiku Abubakar (right) with Muhammadu Buhari at the December 2014 APC conference, at which Buhari became the coalition's presidential candidate.

Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP/Getty Images: 460290902

Nigeria's former ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) has held its first national convention since losing power, closing the event on 8 December by electing new officers headed by party chairman Uche Secondus. The event signalled the PDP's reformation as a united political opposition after prolonged conflict following defeat by President Muhammadu Buhari and the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC) alliance in the general election in March 2015. Ahmed Makarfi finally emerged as the official chairman of the National Caretaker Committee – which now hands over to the newly elected officers – following a long legal battle with former Borno state governor Ali Modu Sheriff, who had claimed he was the rightful chairman. The convention was also notable for the return to the PDP fold of former vice-president Atiku Abubakar (always referred to as Atiku), who had quit the party in February 2014 to join the APC, but then left the ruling coalition on 24 November. Atiku claimed the APC had failed to fulfil its election promises and had instead focused on blaming previous governments for the nation's problems.

There has been no official reaction from the APC to Atiku's departure, but former Borno state and Lagos state military governor Mohammed Buba Marwa said it would not affect the fortunes of the party at any level. Kaduna state governor Nasir el-Rufai, a close ally of Buhari, called Atiku's latest defection a "big mistake" and said he would be no threat to the president if he ran as the PDP's candidate in the 2019 election. This is one of the first direct references from within the APC to Buhari possibly running for a second term in office.

The chance of a second term for Buhari appeared remote a few months ago, as he spent five months of 2017 receiving medical treatment in London for an unspecified ailment, before returning from his second absence on 21 August. In contrast to his first return in March, when he hardly appeared in public or carried out any official engagements, Buhari appears to have made a full recovery even though the nature of his illness remains undisclosed. He has undertaken a full round of presidential engagements in Nigeria, official trips to the United Nations and Turkey, and looks in good health.

Outlook and implications

Atiku's unwavering ambition to become Nigerian president has been clear for 25 years, since he contested the nomination for the Social Democratic Party. Atiku was named as then president Olusegun Obasanjo's deputy when the PDP first took power in 1999 as democracy was restored. Atiku fell out with Obasanjo, and when it was clear he would not be the PDP's candidate at the 2007 presidential election, he left to join the Action Congress of Nigeria but scored just 7%, albeit in a deeply flawed process. Atiku went back to the PDP in 2009 but lost out to Goodluck Jonathan in the 2011 presidential primaries, and then joined the newly formed APC in February 2014 when it became clear it was strong enough to challenge the PDP. By leaving the party that he had declared to be his "final bus stop", Atiku is merely confirming his own unwavering ambition and by implication his conviction that Buhari has made a remarkable recovery.

During his second absence, the growing duration of his treatment and lack of information inevitably prompted speculation in Nigeria that Buhari would not even be able to complete his first term. The possibility of a northern president having to hand over power to a southern vice-president for the second time in eight years was driving warnings of a coup and ethno-cultural antagonism as northern power-brokers feared losing the region's two-term "turn" at the presidency again (see Nigeria: 16 June 2017: Succession concerns over Nigerian president's prolonged absence fuel sectarian and geo-political rivalry, raising death and injury risks). Buhari's return calmed this rivalry by at least going some way to ensuring there would be an orderly handover.

Although Buhari's track record as president has not been impressive, he has been handicapped by plummeting revenue due to reduced oil prices and production which brought about recession in 2016. A second term would assure some policy continuity based around the government's plans to belatedly spend Nigeria's way out of recession, through the means of another expansionist budget revealed on 7 November. Headline projects in the USD28-billion budget include the long-stalled 3,050-MW Mambilla hydro-electric plant, a comprehensive road-building programme, major railroads, and a strategically significant second bridge the across the Niger River in the southeast. A recovery in the oil price is helping to underwrite Nigeria's lending viability, as it seeks USD5 billion in foreign borrowing to plug the budget deficit and start its capital-intensive projects.

However, crucially, a Buhari second term would be the most acceptable outcome for most regional power-brokers within Nigeria, and especially within the APC. It would avoid a costly and potentially destructive battle for the APC nomination between several ambitious candidates, with the fragile nature of the coalition having been exposed by Atiku's departure. Southwestern powerbrokers led by influential APC founder Bola Tinubu would also likely favour a second term for Buhari, as that would imply it is the turn of the southwest to take over the presidency in 2023. The PDP has committed itself to choosing a northern candidate, whether it is Atiku or another, but if successful that person would want to serve two terms. The key indicators to watch are Buhari's health and any references he makes to standing again, and also power struggles within the PDP which could undermine its slim chances of regaining the presidency. Atiku wants the nomination, but many in the PDP feel he is not popular enough in the north to challenge Buhari and would be largely rejected by southwestern voters fearful he might stay in power until 2027.