Embassy warning indicates increasing risk of Islamist attacks against Chinese personnel in Pakistan rather than CPEC projects

On 8 December, the Chinese embassy in Islamabad issued a rare security alert warning that "terrorists" were planning imminent attacks against Chinese organisations and personnel in Pakistan. Although the embassy's statement did not specify the threat, IHS Markit has previously outlined ongoing risks to Chinese personnel posed by Baloch and Sindhi separatist militants. Both groups have publicly stated their opposition to the USD60-billion China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which has triggered an influx of Chinese workers into Pakistan after its inception in 2013. Of the three successful attacks against Chinese interests since then, incidents in Sukkur and Karachi in 2016 were claimed by Sindhi militants and involved the use of low-intensity roadside improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to target Chinese engineers. Neither attack caused loss of life, reflecting the limited capability of separatist groups. Apart from the Islamic State-claimed abduction and killing of two Chinese nationals in July, higher-capability Islamist militant groups operating in Pakistan have not demonstrated a concerted intent to attack Chinese interests in the country.

Significance: Given the lack of indication that separatist militants have improved their capability, the Chinese embassy's alert probably reflects a growing perception among Chinese and Pakistani security services that Islamist militants – mainly the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – are increasingly seeking to target CPEC to undermine the initiative. If this is the case, we assess that TTP militants are more likely to target Chinese personnel outside project sites in suicide IED or small-arms attacks in the cities of Islamabad, Lahore, and Karachi, and Sindh and Balochistan more broadly. CPEC projects – mainly in the infrastructure and energy sectors – possess enhanced security provisions that TTP militants are unlikely to penetrate given their loss of capability since military operations conducted against the groups in 2014. TTP statements against CPEC or in support of China's Muslim Uighur population would indicate an elevated risk to Chinese interests. Similarly, TTP's use of vehicle-borne IEDs, which has diminished since 2014, would indicate a recovery of the group's capability and a growing risk to CPEC projects in particular.