Attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils indicate potential involvement of wider network and co-ordination, heightening Spain's terrorism risks

Police officers look on as a group of men have their identity checked on Barcelona's Las Ramblas following yesterday's terrorist attack, 18 August 2017, Spain.

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The suspect remained at large early today (18 August). Police sources cited in Spanish media, including El Mundo, suspect that the perpetrator is a 17-year-old Spanish (probably Muslim) resident of North African descent. A second attack took place hours later on Paseo Maritimo in Cambrils, a coastal resort 120 km south of Barcelona, near Tarragona. A group of five suspects drove a vehicle into a crowd, wounding six people and a police officer. The five suspects were then shot dead by police. Police have confirmed that the attackers had been wearing fake explosives belts.

On 16 August, a double explosion in Alcanar (Tarragona) destroyed a house, killing one person and wounding 16 others. The police initially treated the incident as a gas explosion; it is now under investigation in connection with the attacks, with the site suspected of being used to assemble explosive devices. At least three people had been arrested in connection with the attacks at the time of writing; local judicial sources cited in Spanish media assessed that there was a cell of at least eight individuals suspected of being involved.

Jihadist connection

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the Barcelona attack via its Amaq News Agency on 17 August, saying that it had been conducted by one of its "soldiers", making it the first claim by the group in Spain. No other counter-claims have been issued so far. The last major Islamist-related terrorist attack took place in Spain on 11 March 2004, when co-ordinated attacks targeted the Cercanías commuter train system in Madrid, killing 192 people and wounding over 2,000 others. Spain has an active network of Islamist militants as indicated by regular police disruption of terrorist plots and the volume of terrorism-related arrests relative to other European countries. The country had increased its terrorism threat level to four in June 2015 – the maximum level is five – with Spanish intelligence officials at the time reporting that 500 Spanish nationals had already joined the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

According to the Jane's Terrorism and Insurgency Centre database, since the beginning of 2017 Spanish police have arrested at least 20 suspects connected to the Islamic State nationwide, including in Valmaseda, Palma de Mallorca, Madrid, Catalonia, Ceuta, and Alicante. Notably, 11 of the suspects detained in 2017 (55%) have been arrested in Catalonia, where the latest attack occurred. Of the 38 counter-terrorism operations conducted in 2015 and 2016, 10 operations (26%) were conducted in Catalonia and led to the arrests of 24 suspected Islamist militants. Since the start of 2015, 43.2% of all Spanish arrests of Islamist militants have taken place in Catalonia. The concentration of jihadist-related activity in Catalonia, as indicated by police arrest patterns, highlights that jihadists have more established support networks giving them access to weapons and supplies in this region relative to other parts of the country.

Outlook and implications

Given the limited access to explosive materials and firearms in Western Europe compared with other arenas in the Middle East, Africa or Asia, jihadist groups are increasingly resorting to using vehicles to stage mass casualty attacks targeting civilians in publicly accessible spaces. This tactic has already been used by jihadist groups in Nice, Berlin, Paris, and London over the past year.

The latest vehicle-impact attacks in Spain, however, indicate a higher degree of co-ordination and capability than was the case in other European cities, given the distance between Barcelona and Cambrils, the involvement of a larger number of people (at least eight), and the potential discovery of a site used to prepare powerful improvised explosive devices in Alcanar. The seemingly co-ordinated vehicle-impact attacks indicate that a wider cell and jihadist support network is likely to be already established in Spain and bring its terrorism risk closer to other high-risk Western European countries, notably France and the United Kingdom. Although to date there has been little overt anti-Muslim sentiment or actions by local communities in Catalonia, the development of any such displays in the aftermath of the 17 August attacks will indicate growing radicalisation and raise the risk of more capable attacks in the one-year outlook. Increasing risk in Spain, outside of Catalonia, will be signalled by a rise in arrests of individuals disseminating radicalisation literature.