Criminal diversification leading to rising death and injury, kidnap, extortion, and fuel theft in Mexico's Tabasco state

On 29 July, the owner of a crane hire business was abducted by seven individuals armed with assault rifles. The incident occurred at his business premises, located in Centro Municipality, approximately five kilometres from the city of Villahermosa on the road to Cárdenas. The incident occurred in the context of rising rates of multiple types of crimes including murder, kidnapping and extortion, and fuel theft in Tabasco state, the deteriorating security panorama is partly the result of a nationwide trend of cartel fragmentation and criminal diversification, which has left a myriad of competing local and transnational criminal organisations operating in Tabasco.

Rising crime indices

Suspected members of Los Zetas cartel.

Getty Images

The murder rate in Tabasco is rising sharply. The 247 murders registered by the National Public Security Secretariat (SESNSP) in the first six months of 2017 have surpassed the total number of murders registered in 2015 (244) and are close to surpassing the total for 2016 (287). Murders in Centro, the municipality encompassing most of the state capital, Villahermosa, have risen from a 24-month average of 15.86 murders per 100,000 inhabitants to 22.7 per 100,000 inhabitants. The municipalities of Huimanguillo and Tenosique, which have the highest murder rates in the state, rose from 26.07 to 37.78 and 20.31 to 36.56 per 100,000 during the same period. Reported cases of extortion have also risen sharply, despite the likelihood of significant underreporting. SESNSP reported 160 extortion victims between January and June 2017, a 153.9% increase compared to the same period in 2016. A total of 170 cases were reported that year. Kidnapping incidents are also rising; 54 victims were reported in the first six months of 2017, a 50% increase.

Criminal organisations

Tabasco's security environment is characterised by the existence of a myriad of different-sized criminal organisations operating in the state. Transnational criminal groups Los Zetas, the Gulf Cartel, and the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) are all present in the state. Although the former two are rivals in other parts of the country, IHS Markit sources report they have formed a strategic alliance to stem the growing influence of the CJNG. The growing number of multiple homicides and narco-messages being displayed at crime scenes points to an intensification of a turf war between the rival groups. These groups engage in a variety of crimes including kidnapping, extortion, and oil siphoning. On the other end of the organisational scale are smaller local and regional organisations, typically with fewer than 100 members. IHS Markit sources report the Calderón gang dominates vehicle assaults and cargo robberies in the Chontalpa region bordering Veracruz while the Gordos gang controls this activity in the Sierra region bordering Oaxaca. The Pura Gente Nueva is a dominant player in illegal oil siphoning in the municipality of Paraíso, which contains the port of Dos Bocas. In addition, small criminal groups engage in kidnapping. Tabasco's state attorney's office reports that it has detained some 400 individuals tied to 80 kidnapping cells since 2013.

Fuel theft

Tabasco has the most plentiful hydrocarbon reserves in Mexico and is the country's second-largest producer of refined fuel, accounting for around a quarter of national output. The port of Dos Bocas is an important export terminal for national oil company Pemex, which operates several industrial facilities in the state. These include a gas processing plant in Centro, a petrochemical plant in La Venta, and several processing facilities in Huimanguillo. Pemex Exploration and Production and Pemex Gas and Basic Petrochemicals are headquartered in Villahermosa. Despite this, fuel theft has historically been limited compared to other states. Of the 21,368 siphoning incidents recorded by Pemex between 2011 and 2016, 965 occurred in Tabasco, only the eighth-highest nationally. A further 54 incidents were registered in the first four months of 2017.

However, criminal diversification and rising petrol prices as a result of fuel price liberalisation in January 2017 are likely to increase the number of incidents of siphoning, as well as fuel cargo theft and, to a lesser degree, theft from marine assets. In November 2016, 11 armed assailants boarded two offshore supply vessels, the 'Global Explorer' and 'Vikrant Dolphin', anchored in Dos Bocas, stealing supplies before escaping. Media reports from Tabasco suggest stolen fuel is retailed to local communities for USD0.45 to USD0.56 per litre, compared to almost USD0.90 per litre on the legitimate market.

Outlook and implications

The security environment is Tabasco is unlikely to improve significantly in the coming year. The deterioration in security seen in the first six months of 2017 occurred despite the deployment of additional security assets since late 2016. In October 2016, the Federal Gendarmerie and a dedicated anti-kidnapping squad were deployed to the state, particularly around Centro and Cárdenas municipalities, and in December 2016 Navy personnel were deployed to support Tabasco state's Mixed Immediate Reaction Force (FRIM). Although criminal violence has been rising in Tabasco, other hotspots including Baja California, Michoacán, and Veracruz have substantially higher indices of cartel violence and are likely to be prioritised by the federal government when considering additional deployments.

The rise in fuel prices from January 2017 will continue to drive demand for illicit cheaper alternatives, posing a particular threat to the hydrocarbon sector. Although Pemex will be most affected by this crime in the short term, the liberalisation of the energy market is likely to increase the number of private actors operating in Tabasco and exposed to this type of crime. Given the culture of violence embedded in criminal groups such as Los Zetas and the CJNG, there is a high risk of death and injury and kidnap for hydrocarbon-sector workers exposed to fuel theft incidents and unwilling to co-operate with criminal elements.