Limited Turkey-backed offensive likely against YPG in northern Syria, made possible by deal with Russia

Afrin is a Kurdish-majority city controlled by the YPG, which has close ideological and operational ties with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan: PKK). The PKK is currently engaged in a 40-year insurgency against the Turkish government inside Turkey. Although IHS Markit was unable to confirm the composition and strength of the new Turkish units, they were described as “huge” by eyewitnesses. The deployment follows reports in March that Russia had reached an agreement with the YPG to establish a Russian military base in Afrin.

Outlook and implications

Turkey's troop deployment indicates that it is probably preparing for a limited ground operation against the YPG. Following President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's announcement, in early April 2017, of the successful completion of Operation Euphrates Shield, Turkish and insurgent proxy forces became available to open a new front to secure Turkey's post-civil war interests. The likely immediate objective would be to take Tall Rifat, which the YPG had captured from the Syrian opposition in February 2016. YPG forces in Afrin are relatively weak compared with the YPG component of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces currently engaged in the battle for the city of Raqqa. Recapturing Tall Rifat, however, would allow Turkey to increase pressure over Afrin, while precluding the prospect of a future Kurdish offensive to connect with YPG-controlled territories further east. Turkey sees the elimination of Kurdish separatist ambitions in northern Syria as an extension of its campaign against the PKK. Public surveys in Turkey have demonstrated that cross-border operations against the PKK and its affiliates enjoy overwhelming support. Moreover, preparations for a Turkish operation, if confirmed, would indicate that Russia has, as claimed by an IHS Markit source in Turkey, decided to drop support for the YPG in Afrin, on the grounds that they are too weak to be an effective component of, still less to lead, a future government offensive to take back control of Idlib province.

The successful recapture of Tall Rifat would allow the opening of a land corridor from territory seized by Turkish proxies during Operation Euphrates Shield through to the opposition-controlled Idlib province. Such a corridor could be used both as a route to redeploy Turkish proxies into Idlib, as well as a safe exit route for Idlib-based pro-Turkey forces, mostly those affiliated with the jihadist group Ahrar al-Sham. An exit strategy would be likely in the event of a Syrian government offensive targeting the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay'a Tahrir al-Sham.