Conciliation, concessions from Nigerian government make further major militant attacks in Niger Delta unlikely in six-month outlook

Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari has allowed his vice-president to take the lead on Niger Delta negotiations.

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Nigeria's president Muhammadu Buhari officially launched the 2017–20 Economic Recovery and Growth Plan in Abuja on 5 April, pledging to achieve 7% growth and an oil output of 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the period. If Buhari is to have any hope of achieving such a dramatic recovery from negative growth of 1.5% in 2016, it will rely on building on an initiative driven by his vice-president Yemi Osinbajo when the head of state was receiving extended medical treatment in London for seven weeks between late January and mid-March. Buhari had never visited the oil-producing Niger Delta since being sworn in as president in May 2015, but Osinbajo crammed in six separate visits while officially acting in the capacity of head of state after Buhari handed over full power in his absence.

The purpose of the visits was to build on tentative negotiations with the Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) headed by Chief Edwin Clark, which was representing the interests of the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) militant group – which three months after its formation had reduced Nigeria's oil output to 1.4 million bpd in May 2016, its lowest level for 27 years. Osinbajo went to all five oil-producing Delta states, listening to the proposals of traditional leaders, local politicians, and civil society groups. However, he has also announced a commitment to fulfilling some of the demands made by the PANDEF in its 16-point list presented to Buhari at an initial meeting on 1 November 2016. The vice-president has directed all oil companies to relocate to the Delta after years of complaint that absentee operators were not creating any local jobs, and at least one major company has already complied. He also has confirmed the federal government's commitment to a long-awaited maritime university at Okerenkoko, has announced proposals for a Gas Revolution Industrial Park near Warri in Delta State, plans to expand liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants on Bonny Island, and supports the creation of modular artisanal refineries to create jobs and decriminalise an already popular activity.

Outlook and implications

The gradually implemented policy of engagement with militants and their representatives and the consideration of their demands are in stark contrast to the initial highly belligerent reaction to the emergence of the NDA, who announced themselves with a signature attack on an underwater pipeline at Shell"s Forcados export terminal in February 2016. Buhari has threatened to crush the NDA in the same way as the Nigerian army has supposedly "technically defeated" Boko Haram and reinforced the Joint Task Force in the Delta, who accomplished little except further alienating indigenous communities through harassing search operations. There was also deep mutual distrust between Buhari and Delta stakeholders based partly on sectarian considerations and also on his belief that Delta elites had played a major part in looting the nation's oil wealth when prices were high under the presidency of Delta native Goodluck Jonathan. The South-South was the only geopolitical zone to remain fully in the hands of the former ruling People's Democratic Party after the 2015 election.

Severely handicapped by plummeting oil revenues because of low prices and NDA attacks, the government has gradually recognised that a negotiated settlement is the only way to pull the country out of recession. IHS Markit sources in the Niger Delta have identified the vital groundwork in reversing government policy laid by state oil minister Emmanuel Kachikwu, who has lobbied strongly for months for a more conciliatory approach after seeing the catastrophic effect of NDA attacks on oil revenues that normally fund about 70% of government spending and on international oil companies that were being explicitly targeted by militants.

Although official talks have been sporadic, Kachikwu has been working behind the scenes to contact and placate the figure he sees as critical for bringing militancy to a halt – Government Ekpemupolo (also known as Tompolo), a former general in the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) insurgency, which was largely ended by the introduction of a comprehensive 2009 amnesty programme. Companies owned by Tompolo subsequently profited enormously from pipeline and maritime surveillance contracts handed out by the federal government. The NDA emerged merely days after he was charged with money-laundering offences related to some of these contracts, became the subject of an arrest warrant, and had some of his assets seized and accounts frozen.

Tompolo and the NDA consistently sought to obscure any links between them by engaging in reciprocal criticism, but it remains highly likely that efficient NDA operations that sought to target critical parts of oil and gas infrastructure were facilitated by technical knowledge acquired from former MEND operatives. It is significant that Kachikwu has persuaded Osinbajo to over-rule objections from transport minister Rotimi Amaechi, a former governor of Rivers State in the Delta, and confirm the maritime university at a location in Gbaramatu Kingdom, which is Tompolo's stronghold. In addition, Tompolo's brother told Financial Times that his sibling is in talks with the federal government over an official amnesty.

The last major attack by the NDA was on 15 November 2016 on the Nembe Creek trunk lines leading to the Bonny Export Terminal. The last post on the formerly very active NDA website was a belligerent threat on 6 January 2017 to step up hostilities during the year. This inactivity reflects a response to the change of government's heart pushed hard by Kachikwu and turned into official concessions and conciliation by Osinbajo, although with the tacit approval of Buhari who knows that personal animosity towards him from Delta elites means he must take a back seat. This is being matched by a new attitude among Delta stakeholders willing to give the government the benefit of the doubt for now. Although major issues such as the reallocation of oil block ownership and revenues will have to be settled at some point, it now seems unlikely that the NDA will resume attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in at least the six-month outlook. However, a proliferation of smaller groups of low capability still threaten low-effect attacks on pipelines. A 2020 target of 2.5 million bpd appears completely unrealistic with only one major new field imminent and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) estimating that production in February 2017 was still only 1.61 million bpd. However, oil and gas companies can at least now consider it financially viable on security grounds to ramp up existing onshore and shallow water output – areas previously threatened by the NDA – to full capacity while squeezing out additional incremental production growth.