Jihadist cohesion likely to drive greater resistance to Burkina-Mali border operations, posing disruption risks to mining activities

The Mali-based jihadist front Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which comprises al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) affiliates, claimed responsibility for the French soldier's death, shortly after issuing a warning to 11 priority target countries, including France and Burkina Faso. Ansar-ul Islam is led by a radical Burkinabé preacher, Ibrahim Malam Dicko, and claims to defend the rights of ethnic Peuls in the north. It has links to central Mali's Peul-dominated Front de Libération du Macina (FLM), a member of JNIM, but does not itself belong to the front.

The counter-terrorism operation is aimed at preventing a rapidly deteriorating security situation in northern Burkina Faso. Dicko's group has already claimed several attacks in the area and its ties to AQIM make it likely that his organisation is being used as a JNIM proxy in Burkina Faso. An attack on a Malian border post at Boulikessi on 5 March, in which 11 soldiers were killed, claimed by JNIM, most likely involved Ansar-ul Islam as the attackers retreated into Burkina Faso. Local media reported later in March that members of the now-disbanded Régiment de Sécurité Présidentielle (RSP), which staged a short-lived coup against the transitional government in September 2015, are cooperating with Ansar-ul Islam. Government intelligence services declared that communications between a former member of the RSP, Boubacar Sawadogo, and Dicko had been intercepted in January 2017, and this is highly likely to have contributed to the government's decision to launch the Soum offensive.

The weakness of the armed forces in tackling insecurity has led to the rise of a self-styled defence group known as the Koglwéogo (Guardians of the Bush), which has grown its power base over the last year despite government constraints aimed at curtailing its increasing impunity, including carrying weapons without authorisation. The group is highly motivated by money gained through extortion, arbitrary detention and illegal taxation. Its stronghold is in the eastern Fada N'Gourma area and it claims to be working with the regular security forces of nearby Benin and Niger to augment border security. However, the group recently expanded beyond its previous zones of influence in the east and centre to set up self-defence units in Soum. On 19 and 27 March, it was involved in two battles with unidentified gunmen in the gold-mining town of Keréboulé, near Nassoumbou on the Mali border, a particular hotspot of jihadist activity. In January, Ansar-ul Islam claimed responsibility for killing 12 Burkinabé soldiers at the Nassoumbou border post.

Despite government criticism of their tactics, the Koglwéogo have the authorities' tacit support. President Roch Kaboré in January noted that the Koglwéogo have contributed to restoring security in parts of the country afflicted by rampant banditry, while stressing they must act within the law. One of the biggest problems faced by the security forces is a lack of trust or genuine connection with the local population, whose support is vital to their counter-terrorism operations. The self-defence group has become a preferred police force among some sections of the population, due to the inefficiency of the regular security forces.

Outlook and implications

JNIM claims the French soldier's death occurred during an ambush targeting the counter-terrorism forces rather than as a result of a defensive response. This claim indicates that the creation of a united front and pooling of resources is paying dividends for the militants who have some capacity to resist counter-terrorism operations, most likely linked to local knowledge of the area. In the coming weeks, JNIM and Ansar-ul Islam are likely to further react to the Fhero forest operations by increasing guerrilla warfare tactics against the troops, including ambushes and hit-and-run attacks, aimed particularly at creating instability ahead of municipal elections due on 22 May. Gold mining activities around Kéréboulé, where international companies like the UK's Alecto Minerals and Avocet Mining are conducting exploration work, also risk disruption including property damage, kidnap-for-ransom, and small-arms ambushes of vehicles travelling along roads to the exploration sites. The government will be cautious about providing weapons to the Koglwéogo group, whose methodology makes it an unreliable partner. However the potentially highly destabilising factor of jihadists linking up with former RSP members will likely lead it to implement tentative moves to incorporate some Koglwéogo members into the police.