Visitors to Eurovision Song Contest in Kiev face risk of individual attacks or collateral injury from brawls

On 9-13 May 2017 Kiev will host the ESC 2017, with 30,000 total visitors expected around these dates. This number will include the official delegations from the 43 participating countries (up to 5,000 visitors), also 15,000 foreign visitors, as well as 10,000 Ukrainians from other parts of the country.

The main competition will take place at the International Exhibition Centre, the second largest arena in the city with total capacity of almost 8,000 people, located in a commercial district on the left (eastern) bank of the river Dnieper, close to Livoberezhna metro station. As most hotels in Kiev are located on the right (western) bank of the Dnieper, most visitors to ESC 2017 will commute to the venue using public transport (metro) or taxis.

Politically motivated brawls

Ukrainian police block a street to protect a LGBT pride march in central Kiev, Ukraine. 12 June 2016.

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Ukraine last held an ESC in May 2005, shortly after the Orange Revolution in Kiev in November 2004 – January 2005. At that time there were around 20,000 foreign and local visitors and the event passed without violent incident.

However in 2017, due to the ongoing armed conflict in eastern Ukraine and the Russian occupation of Crimea peninsula, violent risks at ESC 2017 are likely to be high, with politically motivated scuffles presenting the highest risks to visitors (see Russia – Ukraine: 31 January 2017: Fighting in eastern Ukraine likely to remain escalated until Moscow or Kiev achieves its political aims). If Russia takes part in the ESC 2017, as currently planned, brawls between Russian visitors and Ukrainians or instances of vandalism will be very likely.

Fist fights between Russian and Ukrainian ESC 2017 attendants are likely regardless of Russia's success in the contest. If Russia is seen as less successful, brawls are likely in the form of isolated street fights between small groups between Russians and Ukrainians. In case of Russia's success, whatever position it finishes in, large-scale protests by Ukrainian nationalists will become likely in central Kiev, which could present risks of death and injury to foreign visitors from third countries. In case of anti-Russian protests, Russian assets, both diplomatic and commercial, are likely to be targeted by vandalism (see Ukraine: 15 September 2016: Attacks by radicalised nationalists in Ukraine likely to grow more violent, targeting Russian-associated assets and individuals). Objects (from bottles and stones to Molotov cocktails and crude IEDs) will be likely to be thrown at the Russian embassy in Kiev and branches of Russian commercial banks, such as Sberbank, VTB or Alfa-Bank. However, the intent of such actions will most likely be limited to causing damage to property, and death and injury risks will be collateral. Property damage to local businesses will likely also be collateral.

Crime risks

An ongoing economic crisis and an armed conflict in eastern Ukraine have driven crime rates up in Ukraine in the recent years. The area of conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk regions is a source for illegal firearms for individual criminals or criminal groups across the country, including in Kiev, and internationally (see France - Ukraine: 7 June 2016: French national's arrest indicates Ukraine likely to become source for arms trafficking into Western Europe). In 2016, the number of reported incidents of crime in Kiev increased by 16% on the previous year, to 75,000. The biggest increase was reported in thefts, especially from vehicles (from 3,800 up to almost 5,000 cases) and robberies (from 4,200 up to over 6,000 cases). However, the number of homicides decreased from 115 in 2015 to 99 in 2016.

On 15 February 2017, Ukraine's Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko claimed that only 16% of crimes registered in Kiev in 2016 had been solved. This was below the national average of 30%. Ahead of the ESC 2017, the Kiev city authorities plan to install additional 4,000 CCTV cameras across the city and to establish a new monitoring centre to process information from these. Also, additional police numbers will be provided for the dates of the ESC 2017. However, these measures are likely to have a limited impact on overall crime rates in Kiev, and foreign visitors will become likely targets of thefts, assaults and robberies by individual criminals or criminal groups.

Terrorism risks

The ongoing armed conflict in eastern Ukraine has been accompanied by a proliferation in violent attacks outside the conflict zone, including Kiev, involving primarily crude IEDs and grenades. Targets have included government buildings, locations used for fundraising for pro-government forces, assets associated with government-supporting businessmen, and railway assets and infrastructure (mostly poorly secured tracks and rolling stocks).

The majority of attacks have caused property damage rather than injury, but attacks intended to cause fatalities, similar to a terrorist attack on a pro-Ukrainian rally in Kharkiv in February 2015, which killed four and injured 10, are still likely. If such attacks were to take place in Kiev, they would likely be conducted against soft targets such as the metro system, shopping malls, or large hotels popular with foreign visitors. However, additional security measures for the duration of the ESC 2017, such as screening of passengers at key metro stations, will likely mitigate such risks.

Civil unrest and riots

Kiev remains a hotspot for protests in Ukraine. Both politically and economically motivated protests are frequent in Kiev but they are mostly peaceful, even the larger protests which are likely to reach 20,000-50,000 on certain occasions. Groups of Ukrainian nationalists are likely to organise protests linked to the ongoing conflict in the east, mostly outside the government buildings or on Maidan Nezalezhnosti, the main square in central Kiev and the main focal point of protests in the city. Nationalist groups could potentially hold rallies against the ESC 2017, which is seen as provocative to the socially conservative values of the nationalist groups.

Small-scale protests are likely to be organised by the local Christian groups in anticipation of the event. The opening ceremony of the ESC 2017 is planned to take place outside Saint Sophia's Cathedral, a UNESCO World Heritage site. Various religious organisations expressed their discontent regarding the choice of the venue.

According to a December 2016 poll by the Kiev International Sociology Institute, 48.5% of Ukrainians were willing to take part in the protests. Two years earlier, in December 2014 before the Euromaidan uprising in Kiev, the same poll indicated 43% willingness to protest. However, the majority of respondents are willing to take part in rallies within election campaigns (35.4%), and authorised rallies (11.9%).

The Ukrainian interior ministry is likely to deploy additional police forces to provide security in Kiev during ESC 2017 to mitigate the risks of potential protests. Should the protests become violent, police and security forces are likely to use force (from batons to water cannons) to disperse the demonstrators.

Outlook and implications

Enhanced security measures, which will be implemented by the Ukrainian authorities ahead of and during the ESC 2017, are likely to mitigate most of the violent risks in Kiev in May 2017. Therefore, small-scale brawls between Ukrainians and Russian visitors or individual attacks on foreign visitors will be the most likely risks faced during the ESC 2017.

Foreign visitors to Kiev are likely to become targets for gender, sexuality or racial discrimination. The local LGBT organisations cancelled their initial plans to hold the Pride event concurrently with the ESC 2017 to prevent attacks on LGBT individuals by radical Ukrainian nationalists. Nevertheless, individual attacks against those who are perceived as LGBT are likely. Foreigners are also likely to become the main targets of robberies and armed assaults by criminals, including those involving small firearms.

Protests by nationalist groups are likely during the ESC 2017, but will likely be geographically isolated and monitored by the law enforcement agencies. Police and security services will likely disperse protests forcibly and promptly if these turn violent. Vandalism against Russian assets, a permanently high risk in Kiev since 2014, will be elevated during the ESC 2017. Risks of terrorism remain elevated in Kiev but will most likely be mitigated by heavy security measures.