Inter-communal fighting in Madagascar likely to increase in one-year outlook largely driven by cattle rustling

The Madagascan army last week announced that Operation Fahalemana, which aimed to counter cattle rustling and resulting inter-communal fighting, was being prolonged indefinitely in a bid to contain continuing insecurity causing inter-communal fighting and looting. The military campaign has resulted in 161 deaths, of which 11 were soldiers, and hundreds being wounded. It was launched in October 2015 when police and gendarmerie forces proved unable to contain cattle rustling and was due to end on 20 December. Operation Fahalemana units were deployed in Madagascar's central and southern regions, particularly in the regions of Anosy, Ihorombe, Atsimo-Adrefana, Androy, and Atsimo-Atsinanana, where cattle rustlers are well organised and armed, with assault rifles in some cases (see Madagascar: 17 June 2014: Southern Madagascar's cattle-rustling gangs pose increasing risk of disruption, extortion, reputational risk to energy, cargo, and mining).
Significance: The indefinite extension of Operation Fahalemana indicates the inability of the government to significantly reduce deaths and injuries resulting from rustling activity, especially due to the army's lack of equipment and inability to operate effectively in numerous regions simultaneously. A dire economic situation resulting from a drop in Madagascan commodity exports, high unemployment, poverty in southern rural areas, and the prevalence of small arms are likely to continue fuelling cattle rustling. Affected communities are likely to respond by targeting villages they perceive as harbouring or profiting from rustling with revenge attacks. President Hery Rajaonarimampianina is likely to commit more troops to the military operations in its southern regions, increasing the overall levels of violence in a bid to fulfil a key campaign promise to reduce rustling, especially as his presidency has been strengthened with his party's majority win in the recent senatorial elections. Military interventions are likely to be heavy-handed, leading to tens of deaths due to limited capability, as was the case in 2015, leading to cattle rustlers targeting military personnel and communities in which the army might set up temporary bases. Mining operations in the south are, however, unlikely to be disrupted due to high security around the mines, but mining personnel remain at risk of robbery and attacks the farther they go from well-guarded mining operations and urban centres.